Pandemic, poverty and threats to food supply.

The Brazilian population is currently facing a coronavirus pandemic that will likely be defined as the greatest health tragedy in our history. Our deepest condolences to the bereaved families, and may God grant them strength in this time of grief.

Brazil is definitely going through a unique and unfortunate moment in its history, which will require a great deal of courage, empathy, and political wisdom from the people of Pará and Brazilians in general to overcome it.

As if the misfortune of the pandemic wasn't enough, we are simultaneously facing a terrifying economic crisis that was already in place before the coronavirus, and which has been thrown into dramatic proportions by the effects of the pandemic.

A bunch of lunatics - In short, we are living through a 'perfect tragedy' fueled by a lunatic who, from the Presidency of the Republic, oblivious to the interests of the country and the Brazilian people, advocates for confrontation and instability within institutions. And who, along with the 'guru from Virginia' and their equally deranged children, spends their time producing fake news to spread discord and segregation in Brazilian society.

Even with the demand for food suppressed by rampant unemployment and the rise of poverty and extreme poverty, Brazil is facing the phenomenon of food shortages. This is because, since taking office, Bolsonaro and the Minister of Agriculture, Tereza Cristina, have practically abandoned the food production sectors, particularly family farming.

Everything for agribusiness - In its practice of giving everything to 'friends' and crumbs or nothing to others, the government has irresponsibly directed public agricultural incentives towards export-oriented agribusiness. As a result, public food stocks have never been at such critical levels as they are now.

According to Conab, from January to May 2020, wheat stocks averaged 1.559 tons. To guarantee one day of national consumption, these stocks would need to increase 21 times. Stocks of cassava flour, widely consumed in Pará, did not exceed 196 tons. This would need to increase 119 times to guarantee one day of Brazilian consumption. Bean stocks, at 160 tons, would need to increase 53 times to reach a volume capable of meeting one day of national consumption.

Irresponsible government - It is clear that the government has abandoned the policy of stockpiling, and due to the reduction in planted areas for these crops, there has been a drop in production. It is extremely concerning that, in 2019, the area used for the production of the exported volume of soybeans (90 million tons considering the soybean complex) was approximately 29 million hectares, or 80% of the 36 million hectares planted with the crop.

In the case of corn, the area planted to produce the 43 million tons exported was equivalent to 8.2 million hectares, or 46% of the total area planted with corn. In short, to export only these two products, Brazil uses an area equivalent to 51% of the total area with temporary crops (73 million ha), or 59% of the total area planted with grains (63 million ha).

In contrast, there is a trend of a sharp decline in the share of staple food products in the agricultural economy of the country and the state. In 1995, the area planted with rice in Pará (234 ha) corresponded to 25% of the total area with temporary crops in the state. Currently, it does not exceed 3.3%. For beans, this ratio fell from 9.5% to 2.3%, and for cassava, from 33% to 20%.

Food insecurity - An example of the loss of importance attributed to family farming, the main producer of food, in Pará, in 2019, Pronaf, with resources from FNO, financed only 7.8 contracts for a contracted value of R$ 127 million. In 2013, just 6 years ago, 29 contracts were financed for R$ 253.4 million.

Consistent with the processes described above, in the metropolitan region of Belém, inflation for "food at home" in April was 2.44%, while the overall inflation index was negative (-0.13%). In the accumulated year (January to May), inflation in the Belém metropolitan region was 0.31%, while the IPCA (Consumer Price Index) for "food at home" was 4.22%, or 13.6 times higher than the overall index. This weighted result 'masks' stratospheric price increases during this period for some of the most essential foods in the Brazilian diet.

Inflation for vegetables and greens in Belém in April was 34.9%, equivalent to 6 times the overall IPCA (Brazilian consumer price index) accumulated in Belém from January to May. Inflation for 'legumes and tubers' was 11.9% in the Belém metropolitan region in April; a rate 2.8 times higher than the overall inflation for the first four months of the year.

Therefore, it is realistic to state that Brazil is only not experiencing a serious crisis in its domestic food supply due to the increase in poverty, misery, and consequently, hunger, which obviously impacts the reduction in food demand.

Any project or initiative to recover the Brazilian economy and, consequently, employment and income, must be accompanied by robust measures to adjust the food supply. To make matters worse, even imports of strategic foods, such as wheat, are facing the effects of the 'new exchange rate' and the political folly of the current government, which spreads belligerence even among historically allied nations.