Either France gives up or goodbye federation.

By Alex Solnik 

When proposing to Haddad the idea of ​​Alckmin being Lula's running mate, França, who had previously served as Lula's vice-governor, imagined that Alckmin would withdraw from the state race, leaving the way clear for him after switching from the PSDB to the PSB. This would allow França to inherit Alckmin's votes and, with the support of the PT, potentially defeat the PSDB in the second round. 

Why, in his mind, should the PT support him? Because he would have Alckmin on his ticket, adding to Lula a portion of the conservative vote that could lead him to victory in the first round.

In return, the PT should, in their view, sacrifice Haddad.

But the plan that Haddad and Lula envisioned was different: Alckmin would withdraw from the state race and support Haddad, in order to overcome the resistance of the conservative electorate in the interior of the state.

It makes much more sense for Lula's vice president to support, in São Paulo, Lula's already declared candidate than the one who was his vice president - and who is not Lula's candidate.

France is standing firm. And it will not give up its candidacy.

It won't do any good. Lula can't back down anymore, because he's already declared that he chose Haddad. He would be completely discredited.

Either France gives up or goodbye, federation.

It's not the end of the world if the federation doesn't succeed. 

Alckmin would not join the PSB, as planned, but the PSD. 

 Kassab has already become convinced that Pacheco will not abandon the presidency of the Senate and Congress to enter a campaign in which he polls at no more than 1%.

 He pretends, being an engineer, to risk a very complicated feat: to get Eduardo Leite to become the presidential candidate.

Leite hasn't taken the bait yet. And it's unlikely he ever will.

The declaration of love for Lula on the PT's anniversary leaves no doubt: Kassab is ready to welcome Alckmin. Not to run for the Palácio dos Bandeirantes, as he had been saying, but to be Lula's vice-president.

Kassab has a feeling that the first round will be the second.

For Lula, it's even more advantageous. The center-right profile of Kassab's party is more in line with the winning ticket model from 2002, which he is working to replicate. 

The PSB has the most to lose.

He will be left without the vice-presidential nomination on the favored ticket, which will prevent him from sharing a possible future government and will force him to compete against strong PT candidates in important states such as Pernambuco, São Paulo, Espírito Santo, Maranhão, and Rio Grande do Sul.

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