Optimism for whom?

The economics sections of the biggest news outlets woke up unanimous, Tuesday (17), with the message from the president of Bradesco, Luiz Trabuco, released in Davos, Switzerland. According to him, 57% of Brazilian businesspeople are optimistic about the recovery of the Brazilian economy in 2017.

The subjective term used by Trabuco, and repeated ad nauseam by the press interested in the coup, to justify the point of view of the president of one of the largest banks in Latin America, was: "Brazil is at the turning point".

What do you mean, "turnaround" to where? Unlike the president of Bradesco, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which Brazil got rid of during the first Workers' Party government, lowered its paltry growth forecast for the Brazilian economy in 2017 from 0,5% to 0,2%.

In practice, the aforementioned "turning point" for the Brazilian economy, according to the significant number of optimistic Brazilian business leaders, will be in 2018. For them, 2017 will be a year of preparation for the recovery. The positioning of the business leaders reveals their expectations. Of those interviewed, 36% intend to hire, 26% intend to lay off employees, and 82% said they are still making cost-cutting adjustments.

How can a government expect to emerge from an economic crisis without creating jobs and investing in the country's economic growth? In 2002, the unemployment rate was practically the same as today, around 12%. In 2013, during the second PT (Workers' Party) government, the unemployment rate reached 5,4% of the economically active population.

The low unemployment rate was achieved through federal investments in infrastructure projects, such as the transposition of the São Francisco River; industrialization, such as shipbuilding; and technological production, such as synchrotron light.

While most Brazilian business leaders say they are optimistic, foreign investors are hesitant about the Brazilian political situation which, due to the coup, tends towards legal instability. During President Dilma Rousseff's first term, Brazil was the third most attractive country for investment, behind only the United States of America (USA) and China.

Since the coup in 2016, only 8% of executives from business conglomerates see Brazil as a good business opportunity. During the PT governments, this figure reached 19% in 2011. The research was conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers with 1379 CEOs from 79 countries. Therefore, Trabuco's statement calls for some questions: "- Who are the optimists?" "- Optimistic about what?" "- What are they gaining?"