Lula's 45% support has become a fortress.
"The push Lula's campaign needs to increase his chances of defeating Bolsonaro in the first round may lie in the electoral advertising," says Bepe Damasco.
Another poll, this one by Datafolha, reveals stability in the presidential race. Lula has 45%, Bolsonaro 33%, Ciro 8%, and Simone Tebet 5%. With just over two weeks until the election, the loyalty of Lula's electorate is noteworthy.
Ah, but Bolsonaro has also been at a practically fixed level for a long time, many will say, and rightly so. However, the firmness with which Lula maintains his lead, without wavering, is the decisive element in this election.
The 45% (give or take a little) obtained in the polls represents around 48% of the valid votes, meaning they are on the verge of winning in the first round.
The late-game rally, which is when this type of movement usually gains momentum, from a portion of Ciro's electorate and the more anti-Bolsonaro segment of those intending to vote for Tebet, would be enough to resolve the issue as early as October 2nd.
Whether or not he wins in the first round, Lula's position in all polls gives him a strong advantage in a possible second round. His current 45% would become 54% in the second round. A comfortable margin against Bolsonaro, who, at most, reaches 36%.
There are plenty of reasons for apprehension regarding what Bolsonaro's thugs could do in a second round. However, the least likely scenario is Bolsonaro winning the vote. Current second-round projections indicate a difference in favor of Lula of around 20 million votes.
The boost Lula's campaign needs to increase his chances of defeating Bolsonaro in the first round may lie in television advertising. The programs have been adequate so far, but more emotion is needed. Why not exploit the beautiful new version of the 1989 jingle and images from the large rallies Lula has held?
* This is an opinion article, the responsibility of the author, and does not reflect the opinion of Brasil 247.