The risk of a coup remains after the elections.

Pedro Carrano

The Bolsonaro government is a dangerous enemy and, in four years, has consolidated a social base equivalent to a third of the electorate. It has an organic backing of the military, entrenched in thousands of positions within the state. It has also partly gathered the existing irritation among workers with the country's weakened institutions. 

The threat of a coup and violent actions against the left can never be ruled out. Recent assassinations demonstrate this. However, it is a fact that the conditions limit Bolsonaro's ability to carry out the coup attempt typical of neo-fascism. Today, the candidate is not gaining ground in the polls and is not attracting new sectors to his fascist discourse, as he did in 2018. 

He is facing a wavering Brazilian bourgeoisie that has begun to disengage from his government. Hence the importance for popular forces to resolve the game in the first round, while the enemy is still divided. 

Lula, on the other hand, is in a different situation; he presents himself with what he accomplished in the past while simultaneously offering a fresh perspective. The success of his rallies in the southern states shows that he is on the rise. The chance of Lula winning in the first round exists and has become a rallying cry for his supporters.

The risk lies in the direction the future government will take. This is because it is now evident that there is a consolidated process of organizing the far-right on a global scale. And a scenario in which imperialism openly defines the confrontation with the Russia-China bloc. 

The need for a broad front at this moment should be a matter for reflection going forward. A broad range of alliances is always welcome. However, if the progressive government discourages the popular front and the organization of the masses, failing to prepare for the next scenario, the chance of Bolsonaro's social base eroding it is high. 

There is no room for hesitation. Not now, and not later. Popular organization, transforming pandemic-era cooperative initiatives into public policy, and generating organizing housing and basic income policies are urgent needs for the coming period!