Russia's return

We need to move beyond the information war (on both sides) and focus on the structural aspects: Russian war planning is classic: targeted attacks on key transport/communication/infrastructure hubs, paralyzing Ukraine.

Intense cyberattacks. Thus, airports, railways, and road-rail networks are the main targets. We are not seeing cities being mass-bombed, barring mistakes on both sides – all terrible for the civilian population. What we are seeing are peripheral areas of junctions and infrastructure nodes.

Besides occasional terrible mistakes.

With Ukraine's mobility paralyzed, the operation of "targeted" occupation of political and administrative centers begins, such as ministries, barracks and, of course, the presidency. These are the battles we see on TV, even if poorly documented (day, time, location, troops).

Based on the planned actions, there is no plan for total territorial occupation.

At this stage, Ukraine would be willing to negotiate with the invaders.

The alternative would be the fall of the government and the imposition of a puppet regime. At the moment, for Russia, the most convenient option is to negotiate with the weakened Zelensky government, rather than imposing a puppet regime without any international recognition. Zelensky signing the peace agreement would make for a good photo opportunity for the Russians.

It's possible Zelensky could be overthrown after signing the peace agreement. However, negotiating with him is highly legitimizing for the Russians.

Everything will depend on the price of peace. "Woe to the vanquished," as we've known since antiquity.

We will have on the table:

1. The transfer of all of Donetsk/Lugansk;

2. A status of neutrality for "Rest Ukraine";

3. The optional use of Russian in the national education system;

And explosive clauses:

The sovereignty situation over Odessa, Mariupol, and Krakov and their respective "oblasts".

Everything is still very fluid.