The Lava Jato Clock and the Course of History

If these first two revelations from Odebrecht – R$10 million in undeclared funds for the PMDB, requested by Temer, and R$23 million for Serra's 2010 campaign – had Lula, Dilma, or the PT as beneficiaries, the Lava Jato investigation would act swiftly: immediate referral to Attorney General Rodrigo Janot, who would quickly request authorization from the Supreme Court to investigate them, given their special legal privileges – the vice-president acting as president and the senator who is a Minister of State. But since it involves the PMDB and PSDB, everyone knows the Lava Jato clock will be held back. There's no reason for illusion. The Odebrecht revelations, which seem willing to fulfill their promise of "definitive collaboration" regarding their participation in the "illegal and illicit system of financing the political-electoral system," as stated in a note issued last March, should not affect the progress of the coup in the Senate. Nevertheless, controlling the clock will not stop the march of history, which points to a "blow-up" of the system, an explosion that will allow the restoration of the functioning of democratic institutions, depending on the active participation of society in this endeavor.

In Dilma's trial, given these and new revelations to come, a truly republican Senate, aware of its "historical role," as its president Renan Calheiros has been saying to justify the impeachment, would think twice before impeaching Temer. It would reinstate Dilma under the commitment, which she has been reiterating, to return not to govern, but to facilitate the pacification of the country through a plebiscite on new elections. But it is also illusory to expect this from a House where the cards are marked and counted. The "definitive collaboration" could reach more than one hundred deputies, more than ten governors, more than 30 senators. As long as Dilma's deposition is underway, they will be safe.

The hands of the clock in the Lava Jato operation, the Public Prosecutor's Office, and sectors of the Judiciary may even delay investigations into what Odebrecht will reveal until next year. With Temer already ousted, but having already accomplished the task of enabling the removal of Dilma and the PT from government, there will be no new direct presidential election, but rather the selection of a president by Congress, as stipulated by the Constitution. The same Congress that will have hundreds of members implicated in the investigations. Odebrecht's list includes more than one hundred deputies, more than 30 senators, and more than ten governors or former governors.

This and other tactics will be attempted to ensure the success of the project that is at the genesis of the crisis, Lava Jato, and the impeachment: the removal of a popular government, derived from the ballot box, and its replacement by an arrangement of the elites, to implement an agenda that no candidate will defend in a campaign. It is the old Prussian formula of "top-down" agreements that punctuates Brazilian history. The arrangement may only be in its first phase: With Temer in the presidency, due to the simple fact that he was the vice-president and agreed to participate in the conspiracy.

Sooner or later, however, there will be a general explosion. Sooner or later, society will enter the scene with a vigor not yet demonstrated in these almost two years of crisis, surpassing Lava Jato and the backroom deals, demanding the right to decide, by vote, who will govern. As it did in 1984, in the Diretas Já campaign, altering the outcome of the arrangement that had been agreed upon for the Electoral College.