The Meta-Coup, the Civil War, and Bolsonaro's Bluff: Let's not fall for it!

Why can't we fall for the bluff of Bolsonaro and his "gadified" followers[1] about a potential Civil War, or even a Meta-Coup?

1. Precisely for this reason: we are already in the midst of a coup, the 16 coup. We suffer daily the torments of this institutional-democratic rupture. The coup within the coup (the meta-coup) does not yet have the factual and structural conditions to be carried out;

 2. Regarding Civil War: this notion is not in our DNA, in our cultural and cognitive formation, in our civic spirit. We are not exactly a belligerent people[2];

3. Secondly, because I remember, and everyone will remember, the historic scene of the crowd in front of the headquarters of the Metalworkers' Union in São Caetano, when on that April 7, 2018, former President Lula was waiting for the Federal Police to arrest him. There I thought: "Now it's going to happen! Now there's a Civil War!". And simply, Lula, the greatest and best president in the history of Brazil, was peacefully taken to prison, and nobody threw even a stone at the Federal Police convoy that day.[3]

4. Because the 25% of the electorate that STILL defend Bolsonaro lacks guerrilla training structures, or any coordinated and organic instruction for armed conflict. They will continue on social media for some time fueling hate speech – and nothing more than that;

5. Because only a handful of fascists are actually armed and terrorist. However, they are not enough to sustain a civil war structure;

6. In the other thesis of the text: a Military Coup to complement the 16 Coup. I mentioned at the beginning that this would require certain conditions. And it is not easy to bring them together in this late modernity;

 7. Firstly, in the Armed Forces there are not only those nostalgic for the 64 Dictatorship. Most of them, in their pajamas, play "Pif-paf" (almost poker) daily at the Military Club in Rio de Janeiro or its branches. And they also engage in casual conversations – to see if anything sticks;

 8. It is true that some of these classic authoritarians are still active (concern 1). They are the sons and grandsons of the murderers, or accomplices, of '64. However, they are not the exact majority within the barracks;

9. Yet another group of those who shout "Coup" within the barracks are intellectual descendants of the Dictatorship. Although they do not have a genetic component, they have it as a cognitive formation (concern 2);
 

10. A significant portion, however, has nothing to do with 64. They are in the Navy, the Air Force, the Army to earn their majestic pay and, respectfully, await the day when, perhaps, they will be called upon to defend National Security – in fact, in an imminent war between nation-states (counterpoint 1);

 11. Another group of these, although high-ranking military officers, are educated in the most democratic principles. They defend the Federal Constitution, the Rule of Law, institutional harmony, and the rights to freedom of individuals (opposition 2);

12. Furthermore, Bolsonaro's drunken despotism, his widespread incompetence, and his boundless arrogance are not exactly the ingredients that would motivate any lucid military officer to defend him AT ANY COST;
13. A significant portion of large business owners have either already used Bolsonaro enough, or have had most of their interests met. Bolsonaro, the "scapegoat," is therefore disposable, even to the Market;

14. Some businesspeople, even if they haven't gained all the advantages for their companies, are also democrats and possess a minimum of lucidity. These people see Bolsonaro as a genocidal figure, and Bolsonarism as a disease of the Republic (counterpoint 3);

15. This includes agribusiness landowners, numerous industrialists, and commodity exporters: every day they lose more and more money due to the atrocities of the Head of State. Therefore, they are stunned;

16. A small portion of these magnates are still with the Captain at all costs, and are pouring capital into fake news networks and the repeated semantics of hate (concern 3);

17. The mainstream media, the biggest promoter of the 16 coup, is increasingly abandoning its fascist and authoritarian nest. They flirted with – and built a strong image of – Bolsonaroism among the population, however, they have already realized that this is not good, not even for BUSINESS;

18. This same mainstream media also does not support a new military coup (counterpoint 4), although it supported the one in 64;

19. The churches are becoming more divided every day. Of the Catholics, only the charismatics (and not all of them) are with Bolsonaro. The evangelicals, however, the majority, are still clothed in this anti-civilizational pedagogy (concern 4). 

20. However, it is noticeable that even within this evangelical segment, many people are seeking faith in other circles, not within the Bolsonaro sect. The best news is the increasingly intense activism of the National Conference of Bishops of Brazil (CNBB), the largest structure of the Catholic Church in Brazil. These religious leaders are increasingly combating Bolsonaro's anti-politics – which removes rights from the people and risks the death of their population (counterpoint 5);

21. The National Congress has unfortunately been dead for a long time. It's a useless place at the moment. Not because it's not necessary for democracy; it's a fundamental condition for a State of Law and it IS NECESSARY to have an active Parliament. The problem is its current composition and its leaders: apart from 100 deputies and senators, the rest ARE NOT WORTH THE BEANS THEY EAT (concern 5);

22. Even so, the Military Wing of the Planalto Palace, under the coordination of the Chief Minister of the Government Secretariat and also General, Luiz Eduardo Ramos, negotiates daily with the so-called "Centrão" (center bloc) in the National Congress. That is, they will operate the democratic game. Will they? (Concern 6; Counterpoint 6);

23. There is a clear persecution by Bolsonaro against the governors and mayors of Brazil because of their actions in confronting the Coronavirus, including using the structures of power (example: the Federal Police to intimidate; and the withholding of resources to equip SUS hospitals) in order to pressure these local governments (concern 7);

24. However, there are 5.570 mayors and 27 governors. Even with disagreements, we cannot deny that they are leaders. And they are confronting the Bolsonaro government. Therefore, there is no political support for the President of the Republic and the military that accompanies him (counterpoint 7);

25. The Brazilian Judiciary, although composed of the most corrupt caste, with its mind still colonized in the times of secular Portugal, is beginning to fear a potential dictatorship. And it has found its greatest weapon in reactive force: they will not wait to see their Houses closed. Proof of this is the STF, intellectually led by Celso de Mello: it will go after – with less fear – Bolsonaro and his retired military officers keeping watch at the Planalto Palace (counterpoint 8);

26. I believe that one of the most significant things (counterpoint 9) is the international context. Geopolitics needs Brazil. Aside from the other genocidal figure: Donald Trump, the US president, other countries and the United Nations (UN) are closely monitoring the situation in Brazil. A meta-coup in Brazil is bad for global democracy. And, above all, it's bad for business in this commercial polarization between China (and the other BRICS countries) and the US; Mercosur-European Union. Therefore, there is still no international support for a possible military coup in Brazil;

27. In fact, the real temperature and pressure will come from social media. It's not so simple to mobilize a civil war solely through the internet, just as the opposite is also true: a new military dictatorship in the contemporary game where social media are WEAPONS, including with strong power to combat the establishment and maintenance of a regime with these flaws, will not be easy at all. 

For all these reasons and so much more (which I won't write about here, however), THERE WILL BE NO METAFOLEP! 

Regarding the Bolsonaro-style Civil War: these people don't have the strength to embark on this adventure. They live off their flirtations in order to scare the rest of the population and the activist democrats of this country.

Let's follow the next chapters of this story, because there is STILL a possibility of a slightly happier ending... 

From now on, there is still HOPE!

...........................

[1] Neologism to refer to the formation of Bolsonaro's followers, their political cognition: they become a "herd," and like "cattle," they follow guidelines within their ideological bubble without any plausible questioning of things. 

[2] Although we are quite violent. However, it is a cowardly violence, not a purposeful, cause-driven “violence.” We have no revolutionary spirit or tradition, that is the point. We suffer from increasing urban violence, from the various facets of discrimination and prejudice (which are manifestations of violence). However, this type of confrontation, of struggle: Civil War, is not part of our civilizational significance.

[3] It is true that we can never compare Lula's style to Bolsonaro's style. Lula is an incurable pacifist Republican democrat. Bolsonaro, a despicable genocidal fascist. But again, I return to the Brazilian DNA: we are not here for war!