The game played out of 26

The electoral landscape for 2026 is already being shaped. And, judging by the way things are going, the chance of a second round is becoming increasingly slim. This is because voters will likely find on the electronic ballot that encourages a more two-party system, rather than the multiple choices we are accustomed to: Lula and Tarcísio are likely to embody the opposing poles in the country.

I confess I had doubts about whether Tarcísio de Freitas would give up a seemingly easy reelection in São Paulo to launch a presidential race against Lula – a naturally strong candidacy, even more so when conducted from within the government. But the events of this week dispelled those uncertainties. His trip to Brasília to defend the amnesty project for those involved in the attempted coup against the Democratic Rule of Law clearly revealed his willingness to run.

The gesture was well calculated. The audio in which Eduardo Bolsonaro told his father that if Tarcísio entered the PL party through one door, he would leave through the other forced the governor of São Paulo to make moves towards the Bolsonaro family and the hardcore Bolsonaro supporters. This gesture makes it easier for the former president, who is ineligible to run for office, to endorse Tarcísio as his candidate, overcoming internal resistance.

Worse for the other right-wing governors who harbored presidential ambitions. Caiado, Ratinho, and Zema may still compete, but they are likely to be swallowed up by the highly probable polarization. This is because Tarcísio's profile tends to be more palatable to the segment of the electorate that is actually in contention and that could shift to the right. A role that could have fallen to these governors in a first round in the case of a Bolsonaro family candidacy. The weakening, it seems, will not even allow them to fulfill the role of enabling a second round.

I'm not saying here that Lula or Tarcísio will win right away. That would require a crystal ball. But I'll venture to say that the majority – currently with a slight advantage for Lula – will be decided on October 4th, 2026.

And that is why Tarcísio's decision to run for President, signaled by his defense of amnesty for the coup plotters, is so relevant. From then on, campaigns will have to be designed to resolve the dispute within the allotted time, without extension. With a reduced number of voters still susceptible to persuasion – on both sides – it is perfectly plausible to imagine that the first round of 2026 will repeat the percentages of the second round of 2022.