Kassab's game and the battle on the right.

The affiliation of presidential candidate and governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado, with Gilberto Kassab's PSD party surprised and raised questions among those who follow the political and electoral scene. 

The PSD has gathered in its ranks three governors of important states, who have already presented their names to run in this year's presidential election: Ratinho Júnior, from Paraná, Eduardo Leite, from Rio Grande do Sul and, now, Caiado.

What's behind Kassab's move?

Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP), governor of São Paulo and considered the strongest candidate for the election, disappointed expectations of being the unifying right-wing candidate for the presidency with the support of former president Jair Bolsonaro. 

The launch of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), nominated by his father, has reduced the scope for any candidacy outside the polarization between the left and the far right.

In the latest polls, President Lula leads with around 35%, while Flávio has consolidated his second place with over 20%.

The Genial/Quaest survey, released on January 14th, tested a scenario with Flávio and Tarcísio. Lula came in first place with 36%, while Flávio had 23% and Tarcísio only 9%.

The research indicates that any name outside of Bolsonaro's sphere of influence on the right will have great difficulty consolidating and advancing to the second round.

Thus, the problem for the non-Bolsonaro right is not simply finding the best candidate for the election. In practice, that is a secondary issue.

The central challenge is to create a gap between the two candidates with the greatest appeal in society and demonstrate the viability of a third political force competing for the presidency.

Uncertainty regarding the capabilities of this political field led Tarcísio to withdraw from the presidential race, even though he was the preferred candidate of non-Bolsonaro right-wing parties, the corporate media, and big capital.

It was for this same reason that Caiado, who was passed over by União Brasil, joined the PSD and joined Kassab's campaign along with Ratinho and Leite.

What's at stake in this movement is not just this year's election, but the struggle for hegemony within the right-wing political spectrum. 

Bolsonaro established himself on the right by winning the 2018 election and consolidated his position as the main political leader, after 24 years of polarization between the PT and PSDB parties. 

The right wing, with its discourse of commitment to democracy and "modernization" of the State, which emerged with the end of the military dictatorship and organized itself around the PSDB party, has crumbled.

Some went to the far right, others joined Lula's project in 2022. A third group fell into political opportunism. They lost sight of the possibility of power.

Lula's retirement from the polls after his last election and Jair Bolsonaro's imprisonment highlight the need for this political camp to reorganize and consolidate in order to contest the federal government.

A potential second round between President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro will shape the landscape for the coming years and give the far right a new lease on life. 

Therefore, this game starts now, and the non-Bolsonaro right needs to perform well in this election. 

Thus, to show that it has the capacity to confront the left and dispute hegemony in the right-wing field with Bolsonaro's supporters, regardless of names and parties.

Big capital, in particular, is betting on this path to overcome the dispute between Lula's and Bolsonaro's camps and to build unity among all its factions around a candidacy that expresses its project. 

Kassab manages the ambition of the governors and tries to strengthen his party, which needs to transform itself into an autonomous political force. 

To that end, he guarantees that the PSD will have its own candidate, gives its pre-candidates the freedom to defend their ideas and work towards becoming viable candidates. However, he maintains dialogue with the left and the far right. He wins in any scenario. 

Tarcísio, in fact, will only emancipate himself from Bolsonaro when a new right-wing field consolidates itself with the strength to lead the dispute for the country's leadership. 

Until then, the governor of São Paulo will remain in Bolsonaro's shadow and reinforce his loyalty to maintain ties with his voters. 

At the same time, he is watching Kassab's moves, who will have to show that the Tarcísio 2030 project is viable enough to win him over. 

Ratinho, Leite, and Caiado were already in the same boat as the right-wing leaders, who had no room to compete for the Presidential Palace without the support of Bolsonaro's supporters. 

Now, together in Kassab's party, they face the common challenge of clearing the path, which involves overcoming the Bolsonaro family and reorganizing the national political landscape.