The catfish coup: amnesty that legalizes the coup.

What was meant to be punishment has become electoral fuel. Without plea bargains, those arrested on January 8th have preserved themselves as political capital. Now, with the promise of amnesty and their sights set on 2026, the far-right is preparing to legalize the coup through institutional means.

The amnesty that legalizes the coup.

On January 8, 2023, Brazil witnessed the biggest attack against democracy since the dictatorship. Almost 1.500 people were arrested, caught in acts of destruction, incitement, and coup conspiracy. Today, two and a half years later, only 141 remain in prison and 44 under house arrest. What should have been exemplary punishment has turned into something more dangerous: political capital.

What was meant to be a brake on coup attempts has become electoral fuel. What was meant to be shameful has become a credential. If amnesty is approved in Congress, criminals will become martyrs, and martyrs will become competitive candidates in 2026.

The pact of silence

No major whistleblower. No plea bargain that would expose the chain of command or the financiers of the coup. The silence of those arrested on January 8th is no accident: it's a coordinated strategy.

Aligned lawyers instructed their clients to refuse plea bargains. Better to serve years in prison than to open their mouths and destroy the political machinery that sustains them. Behind this silence were promises: future amnesty, guaranteed candidacy, and certain funding. Every day in jail becomes electoral currency. Every convict who doesn't speak preserves the businessmen, politicians, and high-ranking strategists who will remain free to finance the next round.

There is no heroism: there is calculation. Silence prevails. And those who orchestrated it remain protected.

From martyr to candidate

From within the prison cells, the next crop of far-right candidates emerges. The prisoner who remained silent becomes a "hero of the resistance." The indicted individual who served time becomes a "victim of the system's injustice." All transformed into political assets ready to compete in 2026.

This is where the “Zézinho da Papuda” or “Chirley da Colmeia” appear: caricatures that function as electoral brands in local strongholds. With a little push from the billionaire party fund and a quick course in social media, these characters become digital campaign workers, multiplying votes on a large scale.

The calculation is simple: those imprisoned for the coup are now asking for votes as victims of persecution. Those who vandalized institutions are asking for a seat in Parliament in the name of "freedom." Crime has become a political platform, and prison has become a credential.

The machinery of amnesty

The amnesty bill is key to the strategy: to clear the records of those who participated in the events of January 8th and restore political rights and access to party funds. According to the Constitution, Congress can approve amnesty laws and even overturn a presidential veto with an absolute majority. However, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) can intervene and declare the measure unconstitutional, since amnesty cannot be used to cover up crimes against democracy. If this happens, the far-right narrative will be strengthened: they will claim that Brazil is living under a "judicial dictatorship," exploiting the decision as proof of persecution.

The Senate of 2026 as a decisive battleground.

The central dispute is in the Senate, where 54 seats will be renewed. With a majority, the far-right not only approves laws but also controls confirmation hearings, shelves nominations, and can even judge Supreme Court justices. Amnesty would be the first step: once back in the game, the "politically persecuted" can run for office and use the Senate as a trench against the judiciary. In this scenario, the institutionalization of the coup would occur through legal means, normalizing political violence and emptying the system of checks and balances.

Conclusion — Amnesty is the coup.

If the amnesty passes and the Senate is taken over by the far-right in 2026, Brazil will enter a new cycle: the coup will cease to be a clandestine act and become a legal method of power. The message will be direct: those who attack democracy not only go unpunished, but are rewarded with votes, public money, and institutional legitimacy. What was a crime becomes a government program. There is no pacification, there is authorization. There is no forgiveness, there is a license to repeat. The amnesty does not erase January 8th: it officially establishes January 8th as an acceptable practice in the future.