The idyllic giant can lie in a splendid cradle, but progressives cannot.

By José Reinaldo Carvalho, 247 - Only the naive, the gullible, the senseless can believe that Jair Bolsonaro and his henchmen in Brazil, and those hiding with him in Miami, have nothing to do with last Sunday's attempted coup. Or that among the accomplices in the coup there are not officers of all ranks from the three branches of the armed forces. To think that progressive and leftist forces can be distracted by mild discussions about the democratic character of the military institution is to underestimate the capacity for analysis and political action of forces whose historical mission is to lead the struggle for fundamental political transformations in the country. Therefore, Lula's critical allusions to the military in the meeting with the governors are worth more than the illusions some hold about the uniformed community.

The virulent attack on democracy occurred amidst unprecedented political polarization, reflected in the election results themselves. It became evident that a significant portion of the Brazilian population was captured by demagogic promises and the discourse of the far-right Bolsonaro supporters, who exploited popular sentiment and accused democratic and progressive forces of being corrupt and contrary to entrenched conceptions regarding religious issues and family and social life. But it is undeniable that the Bolsonaro terrorists and their leader emerged isolated from the terrifying events of January 8th. 

Jair Bolsonaro is the mastermind behind the coup attempt. Everything he did during his four years in charge of the Executive Branch was aimed at creating a situation conducive to seizing power through unorthodox means, with the goal of establishing a tyranny through which his clan would enrich itself indefinitely. Everything he did was to go to extremes in statements and actions that offend democracy, common sense, justice, the aspirations and democratic opinion of the majority of the population. In incessant acts of national betrayal, he worked to subject Brazil to foreign interests and the global far-right under the aegis of Donald Trump. In this he was transparent, and even in his last speech he explained to his audience that he did everything and tried until the eleventh hour to find an alternative that would circumvent the election result. And he warned that he would continue trying to execute the strategy of a continued coup.  

Over the past four years, Bolsonaro has defied the institutions of the democratic rule of law, the Constitution, and the laws, compromising the country's prestige to such an extent that even personalities and political forces that helped pave the way for the coup that brought him to power distanced themselves from him and, at the end of the election campaign, joined Lula's candidacy. Bolsonaro never respected the republican powers, not even the Executive, of which he was only an occasional holder to favor his clan. He dedicated himself to attempting to demoralize the electoral system and to rallying mobs that served as his pawns. He co-opted numerous personnel and senior officers of the Armed Forces, previously available due to their atavistic reactionary views. He put other police corporations in the states at his service and corrupted part of the Federal Police. It was a daily effort that resulted in road blockades, demonstrations, and encampments within military zones, where Bolsonaro's supporters found shelter, protection, and encouragement. There have been so many violations of the most basic democratic norms that I do not believe it will be difficult for the authorities to list his crimes, prosecute him, and at the very least condemn him to the loss of his political rights. 

Bolsonaro never acknowledged his electoral defeat. Since the second round of voting (October 30th), Bolsonaro's supporters organized nationwide road blockades and mass encampments outside military barracks, including the Army Command headquarters in Brasília. Caravans of hundreds of buses traveled between different cities. These mobilizations involved people financed by businesspeople, especially from the agricultural sector. On December 12th, when the Superior Electoral Court certified Lula as president-elect, terrorists emerged from the encampment in front of the Army HQ in Brasília, setting fire to institutions, including police stations, and planting a bomb in a fuel tanker truck in front of the airport. Had the bomb been detonated (the attack was aborted in time, but by mere chance), a tragedy of incalculable proportions would have occurred. 

The attempted coup of January 8th is the culmination of all this – of the four years of Bolsonaro's presidency and the two months that have passed since the second round of elections, during which Bolsonaro supporters worked tirelessly for a coup. 

The attacks on democracy on January 8th earned unanimous condemnation from Brazilian institutions, diverse political forces, and popular movement organizations. The international community also condemned this, demonstrating that there is no favorable environment for coup plotters. 

Lula behaved calmly and firmly and managed to quell the coup. But the coup attempts indicate that his term may be marked by serious political conflicts, which will require vigilance and mobilization of democratic and progressive forces. The threat of Brazilian neo-fascism should not be underestimated. Other coup attempts may occur in the future.  

There are urgent challenges to face. The first is to organize democratic resistance – both institutional and popular – against Bolsonaro's terrorism. 

Another challenge is to begin governing effectively, to confront the serious national problems, starting with the social issue, and to begin the journey that leads to development. 

It is impossible to predict how the situation will evolve. In any case, it will be necessary to consolidate progressives within the coalition government and in parliament to improve the balance of power in a political situation where, to achieve governability, Lula promoted cohabitation with conservative sectors aiming to isolate Bolsonaro's supporters. His government is an amalgam of left-wing, democratic, and progressive forces with center, center-right, and right-wing forces, excluding the far-right Bolsonaro supporters. Therefore, it will be a contested government, strongly supported by the left, democratic forces united in a broad front, and the popular movement. 

The battle is not yet won, due to the unequal balance of power between progressives and conservatives. The essential element to confront the coup attempt, defend democracy, and ensure the success of Lula's government will be popular mobilization and initiative to respond to the population's desires and do what the nation demands. This requires struggle, not empty pronouncements or rhetoric for media attention. Even less so, conciliation with the people's sworn enemies and pusillanimity.  

The idyllic giant of the National Anthem may lie in a splendid cradle, but progressive and leftist forces cannot.  

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