The dominance of negative agendas

This beginning of Lula's third term is being marked by the predominance of negative agendas. Some are independent of the government's initiatives and actions. Others, however, have some relation to actions that could mitigate negative effects. The dominance of negative agendas is not a good scenario for the beginning of a government. Especially in a context where it is necessary to create a sense of change in relation to the extremely negative environment of the previous government. Generating a positive environment is one of the conditions for the government to succeed and to weaken the still strong political bridgeheads of Bolsonarism. 

The IPEC survey, released over the weekend, which gives the government a 41% approval rating (good or excellent), is not bad, but it's not comfortable either. It's higher than the same period at the beginning of Bolsonaro's government (34%), but lower than the beginning of Lula's first term in 2003 (51%), his second term in 2007 (49%), and Dilma's first term in 2011 (56%). 

The first item on the negative agenda was the attempted coup on January 8th, with the invasion of the headquarters of the three branches of government. The repercussions of this negativity are still felt today. It was an event that, from the perspective of the federal government's actions, could not have been avoided. The correct actions of Lula and the government in that context did not prevent the spread of the negative perception of those events. 

Other events that negatively impacted the environment and were independent of government actions were the Yanomami tragedy, the environmental disaster in São Sebastião, and a succession of cases of slave labor involving hundreds of workers. All these events, of course, are consequences of omissions, criminal policies, and government mistakes. But the Lula government inherited all these tragedies, seeking emergency solutions. 

The Yanomami tragedy, with its strong international repercussions, caused outrage, shock, and shame. The shocking scenes of emaciated bodies, victims of hunger, malnutrition, and violence, brought to mind some of humanity's worst tragedies, such as Nazi concentration camps and famine in Africa. 

The recurring environmental tragedies in cities are hardly surprising, given the neglect of public authorities in urban planning and the failure to adopt preventive measures in at-risk areas. With the effects of global warming, these tragedies are likely to repeat themselves.

Labor analogous to slavery, including practices of violence against workers, is on the rise in Brazil during this period of recovery from the pandemic. In 2022, more than 2,500 workers were rescued. In 2023, up to March 9th, 523 victims have already been rescued. The numbers are alarming and indicate symptoms of a morally frayed and dehumanized society. 

It is in the political sphere that certain agents could have taken action to mitigate and prevent negative impacts. In recent days, another issue of great negative national repercussion is the attacks by organized crime in Rio Grande do Norte. If, on the one hand, these attacks are a consequence of measures by the state government to transfer leaders of criminal factions to federal prisons, on the other hand, there is strong evidence that one of the causes is the appalling prison conditions, with overcrowding, spoiled food, mistreatment, and widespread torture. This situation could have been avoided if there were no glaring failures on the part of the state government, especially considering that Governor Fátima Bezerra (PT) is in her second term. 

Another negative aspect stemmed from some occupations carried out by the MST (Landless Workers' Movement), particularly in Bahia. The MST is one of the most successful social movements in Brazil. I have a special appreciation for the MST: some of my cousins ​​were founders and are still leaders of the movement. The issue is not the strategy of the occupations, but the timing of their execution. They left the government in a delicate situation at a time when it is still necessary to deal with the aftermath of the attempted coup. They also gave ammunition to the right wing to attack the government. In politics, the effective execution of a just action depends on the assessment of the circumstances and the opportune moment. If this is not well assessed, the action may produce an effect contrary to the intended objective.

All prudent assessments indicate that this is the decisive moment for the government to get its house in order. It is necessary to contain the expansion of debt and restore revenues so that social policies can be implemented and investment capacity can be recovered. Not doing this now means opening a path of difficulties and lack of control in the coming years. The economic team led by Haddad has been demonstrating competence and responsibility in building this positive outlook, with which growth will resume.

But sectors of the PT (Workers' Party), particularly the presidency, decided to attack this construction of the government's economic policy. In the episode of the fuel tax reinstatement, they defended the same thesis as the Bolsonaro supporters in the PL (Liberal Party). In a bizarre way, they have been transforming the obscure and unknown president of the Central Bank into the party's main enemy. Everyone knows that there is a tendency for interest rates to fall and that food inflation itself, after this seasonal peak, tends to decrease. The high interest rates that are there were raised during the Bolsonaro government. No protests against high interest rates were made then.

These sectors of the PT (Workers' Party) seem to have forgotten that Bolsonarism is and will continue to be the main enemy. The IPEC (Institute for Economic and Social Research) survey itself shows Bolsonaro's resilience. The PT offered weak opposition during the four years of Bolsonaro's government. The price paid by society was extraordinarily high. This weakness continues to be prevalent. 

Bolsonarism remains strong and active on social media. It is organizing in Congress aiming for a tough opposition. The more organized Bolsonarism is, the higher price the government will have to pay to maintain a viable base in Congress. Contrary to what many think, the end of the secret budget did not weaken Arthur Lira. The political ineptitude of the PT and some ministers contributes to creating an even greater dependence of the government on Lira and sectors of the Centrão (center-right bloc). 

The only possible left-wing policy at this moment consists of seeking a balance between fiscal and social responsibility. This will guarantee social programs, the future resumption of investments, and growth. One cannot sell as leftism a leftism that is subsidiary to Bolsonaro's theses.