Did disaster elect Bolsonaro?

The longest democratic period in our history is also the one with the lowest growth. When the 88 Constitution was enacted, the population expected better days. Why hasn't democracy brought prosperity? What went wrong? 

According to economist Márcio Pochmann, between 1980 and 2020 Brazilian capitalism experienced a period of decline, with average growth just above 2%. That's 40 years of stagnation, with two lost decades. 

In the 30s, with a developmentalist vision, we began a process of industrialization, urbanization, and professionalization of the state apparatus.

Brazil was the second fastest-growing country in the world between 1930 and 1980, with an average growth rate of 6% per year. This was a conservative modernization that failed to address the serious problems of wealth and income concentration. Instead, we had "Chinese-style" growth.

In 1930, Brazil's GDP represented 0.8% of the world's GDP. In 1980, we accounted for 3.2%. In 2020, we regressed to just 2%. 

The crisis of the 80s transferred income from the poorest to the upper class and destabilized the economy. It became more advantageous to speculate in the financial market than to produce. Our industrialists became rentiers and importers.

The inflation problem was only solved in 1994 with the Real Plan. The debt problem was resolved in the 2000s. But our historical structural problems remained unresolved.

We have a shamefully unfair tax structure. Only Brazil and tiny Estonia do not tax the distribution of profits and dividends. What justifies the maximum income tax rate of 27,5% for the wealthiest? Why does taxation fall on consumption and not on income and wealth?

We are experiencing a rampant process of deindustrialization. Our industry's share of GDP is now less than 10%. Incredibly, we've returned to the same level as in 1910. 

We had some good times, but with a sad realization. The overwhelming majority of jobs created were low-skilled, paying up to two minimum wages. 

About 4/5 of Brazilian jobs are currently in the tertiary sector. 

The consequences are dramatic. In 1985, nearly 3% of Brazilians received some form of income transfer from the federal government. By 2014, that percentage had jumped to 26%. More than a quarter of the population became dependent on pensions, retirement benefits, or other federal programs.

If at the end of the 80s the country had 90 people in its prisons, 30 years later we have nearly 900 Brazilians incarcerated. Prison was the "solution" presented to a growing army of those excluded by the system.

Planes never crash for a single reason. International conspiracy driven by geopolitical interests? Fake news machine? Corruption? Economic disaster? Lack of a national development plan? Most likely, the "black box" will reveal a combination of these factors. 

Bolsonaro capitalized on this setback by presenting himself as the antithesis of the New Republic. Let's face it, that wasn't a difficult task.