The lockdown survives -- for now.

By Paulo Moreira Leite, for the Journalists for Democracy Luiz Henrique Mandetta's continued presence in the Ministry of Health indicates that, at least this time, Jair Bolsonaro was unable to impose his disastrous approach on the fight of Brazilians against the new coronavirus.

The version that reached this reporter is that this weekend the dismissal of Minister Mandetta was even considered in the Presidential Palace, including the nomination of a successor.  

But it was ultimately discarded due to fears that an operation of that magnitude would trigger an unprecedented political crisis in the midst of the battle against COVID-19, potentially creating an insurmountable division among Brazilian authorities – the medical community, state governors, the federal government, and the Armed Forces. 

In recent days it has become clear that the Army command, an essential shield in supporting a socially isolated government that feeds on a pasture of constant provocations, is far from sharing Bolsonaro's ideas about Covid-19 and its impact on the lives of 210 million Brazilians.

In a blatant dissent against the president's "little flu" rhetoric, the Army commander, General Edson Pujol, recorded a video emphasizing the importance of combating the coronavirus as "perhaps the most important fight of our generation."

A day later, General Mourão, the Vice President of the Republic, addressed Bolsonaro's opposition to social isolation as a simple matter of interpretation. Very careful with his words, he said perhaps "he expressed himself in a way that wasn't, let's say, the best."

In the same statement, Mourão assured, to leave no doubt, that "our government's position is one: isolation and social distancing."  

Today, in a page-and-a-half interview in Folha, Mourão speaks in a conciliatory tone, avoiding any exhibitionist gesture that could be seen as a desire to gloat over the continued presence of the minister who has become a spokesperson for lockdown and, therefore, an adversary of Bolsonaro within his own government. Cautiously, he recommended "individualism" and "seeking the middle ground and equality."

In a lengthy press conference yesterday afternoon, Mandetta made it clear that, despite presidential opposition, horizontal isolation remains the basic guideline in the fight against COVID-19. 

Published by the Estado de S. Paulo newspaper and reported by a source present at a meeting between ministers and the president on Saturday, an aggressive and harsh statement by Manetta is explained in this unfavorable context for Bolsonaro: "Are we prepared for the worst-case scenario, with Army trucks transporting bodies through the streets? With live internet broadcasts?"

The idea today is clear: Brazil remains aligned with the view that, based on the tragedies in Italy and Spain, recommends what is called "social internment" to avoid a large-scale catastrophe.

But one doubt persists: even while remaining on the right track, the minister has proven to be overly susceptible to pressure from the Presidential Palace.    

It is difficult to understand Bolsonaro's defeat without considering the prevailing mood in spheres outside the government and its political bloc. The proposal to call for protests along the lines of "Brazil cannot stop" was met with a storm of judicial injunctions. In Rio, federal judge Laura Bastos Carvalho prohibited the federal government from publicizing the campaign with the slogan "Brazil cannot stop," budgeted at R$ 4,8 million.  

In a decision worded to leave no room for ambiguity, the magistrate determined that "the Union must refrain from broadcasting, via radio, television, newspapers, magazines, websites, or any other means, physical or digital, advertising related to the campaign 'Brazil cannot stop,' or any other that suggests to the Brazilian population behaviors that are not strictly based on technical guidelines issued by the Ministry of Health, based on public documents from scientific entities of recognized standing in the field of epidemiology and public health." 

The few signs already gathered about the opinion of the average citizen regarding the necessary fight against a pandemic capable of eliminating thousands of lives all point in the same direction. 

In recent days, a Travessia/Valor Econômico telephone survey, with 1,000 interviews conducted a week ago, has been circulating, revealing messages of support for lockdown measures and a critical view of Bolsonaro.   

With all the reservations that can be made about opinion polls, it seems clear that the majority of the population is following the coronavirus crisis with the attention it deserves and has strong opinions regarding the role of the main political forces in the matter.

When questioned about Bolsonaro's handling of the coronavirus, respondents disapproved of the president's performance by 50% versus 30%. When asked, "Do you trust President Jair Bolsonaro's ability to manage the coronavirus crisis?", 64% said "I do not trust him," compared to 24% who answered "I trust him." 

Reading the survey results, the responses are consistent with each other, showing that the population is building a coherent understanding of one of the most serious crises in Brazilian history.

The same respondents who condemn Bolsonaro and support lockdowns have a positive opinion of state governors, who, by a very large majority, were able to confront the presidential palace.

Thus, 84% of those interviewed -- compared to 12% -- said they agreed with "the measures imposed" by the lockdown.

When asked, "How have you evaluated the actions of your state governor in the face of the coronavirus crisis?", no less than 70% said "I approve," compared to 19% who said "I disapprove." One only needs to recall the public conflicts between Bolsonaro and the governors to understand the weight of this negative assessment.

Under normal circumstances, this majority should be enough to create a new environment, favorable to a nationwide mobilization to confront a threatening and unknown virus. Experience with Bolsonaro's regime forces us to doubt this possibility.

His fifteen months in office teach us that Bolsonaro will continue to lie in wait for a new opportunity, any opening, for a new attack on the lockdown.

It is their destiny and their nature to do everything possible to prevent any initiative built with the support of the majority of Brazilian society. As demonstrated by their encouragement of flat-Earth theories and the cult of violence as a method of political action, both respect for science and devotion to democratic values ​​are foreign to their political practice.

By fiercely opposing lockdown measures, Bolsonaro has taken on a dead-end cause – only a defeat for Brazilians in the greatest health catastrophe in our history could serve his political agenda. 

Therefore, the fight continues.

Any questions?