Chavismo at its most dramatic moment.

The assault on Fort Tiuna on January 3rd, amidst a massive operation ordered by Donald Trump, establishes a new and dangerous balance of power for the Bolivarian revolution. More than just another step in the escalation that began last September, it represents a direct blow against the state leadership, making President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, prisoners of war.

More than one hundred men and women were killed during the aggression, most of them heroically resisting the American incursion. The ineffectiveness of the Chavista leader's defense apparatus, however, exacerbated the situation. In the first hours, inside and outside Venezuela, alongside the revulsion against the imperialist crime, a climate of doubt and apprehension was sown.

The situation became less murky in the following days. The White House had been able to fiercely attack the nerve center of Chavismo, but without the means to establish an alternative power structure, a new government led by groups loyal to Washington. Trump himself dismissed Maria Corina Machado, the most prominent figure of the far right.

On one side, Chavista Venezuela, now without its main leader, was trapped by US troops, with their immense air and naval superiority, capable of blockading the country and seriously harming it. On the other, the United States demonstrates enormous potential for external pressure, but lacks the strategic tools to defeat the enemy, which continues to govern.

Precarious balance

This is a precarious situation, as is evident. As far as one can understand his erratic behavior, the US president, taking advantage of his current position, is trying to demand the most brutal concessions and attempt to demoralize the Chavista government, now led by interim president Delcy Rodríguez. He presents it as a puppet in his hands and fuels the most sordid rumors of betrayal by the new leadership towards Nicolás Maduro.

These baseless rumors are echoed by the Western press and its allies in an attempt to bring down the movement created by Hugo Chávez, against which they have fought for so many years – often with the sympathy of left-wing circles influenced by liberal ideas or simply misled by the narrative emanating from the United States and Europe.

Trump has no short-term solution to counter the Chavista government, but he wants to weaken it as much as possible until he develops some way to unify civilian and military sectors willing to submit to American interests, with enough representation to consign Chavismo to the past and restore the old oligarchic state.

Chavismo, in turn, also needs to buy time and avoid an open military confrontation. It is well known that China and Russia are not willing to erect a protective shield, in addition to the damage caused by January 3rd to the defense system and the natural difficulties that any frontal clash with the superpower would entail.

The interim president is working to keep the historic Chavista bloc cohesive and its social base mobilized – denouncing imperialist aggression, reaffirming national sovereignty, and demanding the immediate release of the presidential couple. Among her countless tasks, Delcy Rodríguez needs to maintain the functioning of the state, revive public morale, and heal the wounds of the attack she suffered.

It also seeks to broaden internal alliances, despite the PSUV's hegemony over all institutions, aiming for a wider range of support to defend the nation's survival. The release of prisoners, already underway, is part of this strategy of internal détente.

Chavismo

Chavismo is going through a moment, however, that could be compared to that of the Russian Revolution during the Brest-Litovsk negotiations in the first months of 1918, still during the First World War, when Germany presented absurd demands for an agreement: control over territories that contained a third of the Russian population, 50% of the industry, and 90% of the coal mines.

The Bolsheviks had to choose between fighting and negotiating. Lenin analyzed that the main popular desire was to end the armed conflict, even more so with the old Tsarist army shattered and the country militarily weakened. The revolution depended on peace, even if the cost was shameful concessions, hoping that a popular uprising in Germany itself could remove the noose from the Russian neck.

However, just two months after the treaty with the Prussian Empire was signed, counter-revolutionary forces plunged the first socialist state into a brutal civil war, with the invasion of fourteen foreign armies. The Bolsheviks triumphed in 1922, as is well known, but that is another story.

In Venezuela today, oil is the price to pay to buy some truce, until the situation inside and outside the United States can reveal another path. For now, negotiations regarding this energy resource follow relatively traditional commercial terms, but nothing is guaranteed. If it is possible to circumvent the confrontation before the US congressional elections in November, perhaps a less dangerous prospect will emerge, with the eventual defeat of the Republicans.

The future of Chavismo and the Bolivarian Republic likely depends on infamous but unavoidable negotiations, as occurred more than a hundred years ago with Soviet Russia. As in any revolutionary process, the fundamental question is that of political power. Oil is lost and recovered, as are other riches, if necessary, provided that the State does not return to the hands of the old ruling classes or an imperialist power.

Delcy Rodríguez's greatest challenge at this dramatic stage lies not in the epic and willful movements that have always been the most seductive face of Chavismo, but in leading the regrouping of the lines of defense until the emergence of new times, the possibility of which does not depend solely on the Venezuelan left.

This strategy had already been implemented by President Nicolás Maduro before his kidnapping. In the hands of his temporary successor, hardened by many years of fighting alongside him, lies the historic mission of steering the ship, amidst the storm, to a safe harbor.