The scenario of 2018 will not repeat itself, not even as a farce.

By Moisés Mendes, from Journalists for Democracy

Speculation surrounding the hypothesis that Bolsonaro can maintain the support of a third of the population and reach the second round against Lula under the same conditions as in 2018 is fanciful.

And so, according to those who formulate these delusions, anything could happen. It's the 'analysis' that circulates most today, because Bolsonaro's fortune tellers make a living by predicting things.

But everything is different today. Bolsonaro faced Fernando Haddad in 2018. Haddad's running mate was Manuela D'Ávila. The left managed to have the audacity to bring together two left-wing names in an attempt to win the election without Lula.

With Lula imprisoned, the PT (Workers' Party) chose a vice-presidential candidate from the PCdoB (Communist Party of Brazil) to attract women, young people, and those further to the left, in order to rejuvenate and revitalize the party. And the result was what it was: Haddad and Manuela fought bravely and didn't lose badly. And then there was the stabbing.

This year's election is between Lula and Bolsonaro. And Lula has Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate. Only an accident could separate Alckmin from Lula's partnership.

Imagine, then, if Bolsonaro were to reach a second round (which would only not happen if Eduardo Leite revived the third option), that the conditions of 2018 were to repeat themselves.

May the distraught middle class rush into Bolsonaro's arms, still reeling from the end of the PSDB, and may the majority hold their noses and accept Bolsonaro as he is, just to finish off the PT again.

The 2018 voter believed, or deceived themselves into believing, that Bolsonaro was part ogre, part admirer of torturers, part imbecile, part bum, and part corrupt. And they believed he could be part centrist, part sensible, and even part liberal.

In 2018, voters were trying to convince themselves that Bolsonaro, once in power, would not be the same person who threatened to kill his opponents in that speech delivered by phone to a crowd on Paulista Avenue between the first and second rounds of the election.

But Bolsonaro is exactly what he is. He's not halfway there. He's whole, completely a brute, completely an imbecile, completely an admirer of torturers.

He is the undisputed leader of a family being investigated from all sides for corruption. And he's still a complete scoundrel.

Bolsonaro did not move towards the center, as almost everyone who comes to power does; he did not negotiate, he did not make concessions, and he did not stop leading the far right.

He has amplified his fascist tendencies and now has no way to camouflage his intentions. He's a perfected version of "Mamãe Falei" (a Brazilian meme), except that the congressman who preys on poor women knows where Ukraine is.

But is it possible to believe that this Bolsonaro, the destroyer of the economy, education, health, and the environment, will have the same chances in the second round as in 2018, without the stabbing, without other surprises, and without the dirty tricks of fake news?

Does anyone seriously believe that Bolsonaro could gather the same forces and the same disillusioned voters from 2018, when gasoline was R$10, cooking gas was R$120, and a head of lettuce was R$5?

Is it possible to imagine the poor forgetting that Bolsonaro made them miserable, and that the miserable no longer know what they are?

It's a remarkable effort by those who try to see Bolsonaro miraculously overcome all the problems he can't handle, in order to arrive strong at the election. Those making this effort belong to the "I told you so" crowd.

But Bolsonaro doesn't control anyone, he knows nothing about what's going on, and he's easily controlled by the military, the centrist bloc, and the Petrobras board.

Even so, could something serious and unforeseen happen, orchestrated by the far right or not, and alter the course of the election? It could.

The unpredictable factor might not even be a coup. Nor an attempt to sabotage the election. But with Bolsonaro, anything is possible.

Bolsonaro might even give up, and then everything changes. But Bolsonaro will not have a repeat of what happened in 2018, not even as a farce.

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