Brazil is being forced to cross a geopolitical Rubicon.

Since the beginning of this century, especially since Lula's first term, Brazil has been gradually reducing its once strong dependence on the USA.

This is not about "anti-Americanism," or anything of the sort.

Our country has simply kept pace, in an intelligent way, with the profound geoeconomic and geopolitical changes that have occurred, and continue to occur, in this century.

The rapid and inexorable rise of China and the so-called emerging countries has created an economic, commercial, and geopolitical scenario that has allowed Brazil to better project its interests abroad.

During this period, a process occurred that Tullo Vigevani and Gabriel Cepaluni accurately termed "autonomy through diversification."

Our country, without abandoning its traditional partnerships with the US, Europe, and Japan, has greatly diversified its strategic partnerships with new and emerging global players and has invested heavily in sovereign regional integration and in closer ties with the Middle East, Africa, and other regions of the world where we previously had a modest presence.

One of the natural consequences of this strategy of seeking greater autonomy was the gradual decrease in the weight of the US in our trade and in our economy.

In 2001, approximately 25% of our exports went to the USA. Today, despite some recent setbacks, our exports to that country represent only 12% of the total. In other words, these exports have fallen to less than half of what they were.

Of course, the US continues to be a very important partner for Brazil, especially when considering the export of manufactured goods. In this field, the US remains the main destination for exports from our industries. Approximately 9.500 Brazilian companies export there.

But the fact is that Brazil today has diversified partnerships, which help to cushion the impact of Trump's protectionist fury.

In the first half of this year, our exports to Asia totaled approximately US$70 billion (more than US$48 billion to China alone), to Europe around US$30 billion, to North America US$26,6 billion (US$20 billion to the USA), to South America US$20 billion, to Central America and the Caribbean US$2,6 billion, the Middle East US$7,1 billion, Africa US$6,7 billion and Oceania US$616 million.

Our main export hub and partnership has shifted to Asia, and we export the same volume to South America and the USA.

However, given Trump's unacceptable aggression against Brazil, this strategy of "autonomy through diversification" will have to be considerably intensified.

We hope that "autonomy through integration" does not have to be replaced by "autonomy through rupture"However, it seems inevitable, within the framework of the Hobbesian empire that Trump is creating, that Brazil/US bilateral relations, established over 200 years ago, will undergo a revision, forcing our country to distance itself further from the US and move closer to BRICS and the so-called Global South.

Again, this is not about "anti-Americanism." Neither Brazil nor BRICS are "anti-American." That makes no sense for the interests of our country or this bloc.

Julián Marías, a Spanish conservative philosopher and disciple of Ortega y Gasset, was once asked if he was "anti-communist." Julián Marías replied that he did not consider himself "anti-communist," because being "anti" something means being dependent on that thing.

Brazil is simply pro-Brazil and, together with BRICS, is dedicated to building a more symmetrical, multipolar, prosperous, and democratic world order, based on a renewed multilateralism.

The problem is that Trump is "anti-BRICS," "anti-China," "anti-Brazil," etc.

Trump sees the world as a zero-sum game, in which, for the US to gain anything, the rest of the world must, in turn, lose something. This is the "logic" of a "businessman" who came from the mafia underworld of New York's construction industry. It's not the kind of logic that should inspire a president or a statesman.

Trump simply doesn't understand the world. He doesn't understand the tectonic forces that are irreversibly changing the global landscape, making it increasingly multipolar and diverse.

You think your tariffs are going to stop the Earth from rotating? They won't.

On the contrary, their clumsy, aggressive, and isolationist actions will accelerate the geoeconomic and geopolitical changes that have been consolidating for some time.

If the US continues on this dissonant and reckless path, Brazil may be forced, in order to defend its sovereignty, which is non-negotiable, to cross a geopolitical Rubicon.

Becoming an opponent, not exactly of the USA, but of the creation of a Hobbesian Empire, based on force and incompatible with the interests of Brazil and all of humanity.

Brazil, of course, will continue to rely on dialogue and negotiations. But patience has its limits, and dealing with people who behave like a dissident group of Homo sapiens sometimes becomes impossible.

Trump, like the pandemic, will pass.

It remains to be seen, however, how the inevitable scars of his passage, à la "Genghis Khan," will be felt in Brazil/US bilateral relations and on the global stage.

Nothing will be like before.