New research offers a glimmer of hope against barbarity.

The use of violence as a tool for political and electoral propaganda is nothing new in Rio de Janeiro.

The political fallout from the mega police operation in the Alemão and Penha complexes, however, seems to transcend Cláudio Castro's provincial calculations, fitting into an agenda of national and even international scope.

There are two alarming factors that exacerbate the political effects of this massacre in Rio de Janeiro.

One of them is the situation of the Brazilian far-right, desperate and cornered. With its main leader, Jair Bolsonaro, out of the race, it has been losing on all fronts.

This led her to embrace killing as a solution to all her problems, using the mega-operation to promote a death cult that puts the lives of all Brazilians at risk.

If we give the police carte blanche to kill, this could have tragic consequences for human rights in Brazil.

The other factor is the international situation, in which the world watches in bewilderment as the Trump administration, pressured by its own economic blunders, resorts to a discourse of violence against Latin American countries.

He uses the issue of drug trafficking to further the normalization of murders without trial.

Bolsonaro's supporters likely saw an opportunity to use the commotion generated by the operation in Rio de Janeiro as a way to mobilize the Trump administration against Lula once again.

Two new polls, by Quaest and Datafolha, show the deep scars that the mega-operation in Rio left on public opinion.

Amidst the psychological devastation that violence causes, creating a spiral of death that leads people to crave even more violence, it is still possible to glimpse some glimmers of hope.

The humanist field is searching for pockets of resistance, and thankfully, they exist. One of the most important, as highlighted by the Quaest research, is the female electorate.

In Rio de Janeiro, the electorate has unfortunately become more conservative than the national average and is particularly traumatized by violence.

In this scenario, women overwhelmingly position themselves against barbarity.

The Quaest survey reveals a striking gender contrast. While 73% of men consider the action a "success," among women from Rio de Janeiro there is a virtual tie: 44% of them classify it as a "failure," compared to 43% who see it as a "success."

This division is the starting point for building resistance to this model of public security based on death.

The feeling that the operation failed to bring security is even stronger in the Quaest data. After the police raid, 60% of women in the state of Rio say that the region became less safe.

This perception is much more pronounced among women than among men.

Distrust in the effectiveness of violence translates into a preference for more cautious police action.

For 57% of them, the first reaction of an officer when encountering an armed person should be to attempt an arrest without shooting. This number represents a stark contrast to the 55% of men who advocate shooting immediately.

The survey also points to a deep ideological divide on this issue, with two completely opposing worldviews on how to combat crime.

On one side, the progressive camp rejects violence as a solution. Among Lula's voters in the state of Rio, 65% considered the action a failure. This percentage rises to 73% on the non-Lula left.

On the other hand, the right identifies with brutality. Among non-Bolsonaro supporters on the right, 86% saw the action as a success. Among Bolsonaro supporters, the number reaches 88%.

The incursion served as a political catalyst for Governor Cláudio Castro (PL). His disapproval rating exploded in the progressive camp in Rio. It jumped from 44% to 69% among Lula supporters in Rio and reached 79% among non-Lula supporters on the left.

Conversely, his approval rating soared to 82% among Bolsonaro's voters. It also increased among independents, where 49% approve of him.

Thus, the governor appears to have achieved his main political objective: securing his election to the Senate in 2026. The numbers indicate that, at that point, he will no longer have any problems.

The price paid, however, was high: a strong radicalization of the local electorate.

While Castro's support wanes, Lula's government approval rating in Rio de Janeiro has fallen from 37% to 34%.

The government's performance in the area of ​​public safety is overwhelmingly negative (60%).

Lula's unfortunate statement about drug traffickers being "victims of users" caused a profound shock in local public opinion. 61% were aware of it, and the majority disagreed.

The question, therefore, is not whether the operations should occur, but how they should be conducted.

Despite strong rejection of the way the operation was conducted, support for carrying out raids in communities is widespread, even on the left.

73% of those interviewed by Quaest believe that the police should carry out such actions. Support is at 51% among Lula supporters in the state of Rio and 50% on the non-Lula left.

The criticism focuses on flawed planning and excessive lethality.

One of the most revealing points of the survey sheds a light of hope against the fascist drift. It is the opinion on police conduct.

Most people from Rio de Janeiro (50%) believe that an officer's first reaction upon seeing someone with a rifle should be "to try to arrest them without shooting."

This sentiment is prevalent not only among women (57%) and the left, but also among independent voters (55%).

This suggests that the right wing, by betting everything on explicit violence, may have "jumped the gun" and isolated itself at its extreme.

Even so, the moment creates a window of opportunity for the federal government.

The perception that the Rio government lacks the capacity to combat organized crime alone (62% in the Quaest survey) and dissatisfaction with federal aid (53% believe it has not been helpful) create a demand for stronger federal intervention.

The Baixada Fluminense region emerges as a priority area for rebuilding trust. There, Lula's approval rating has plummeted to 24%, and opinions on the violence are more extreme.

This is a chance to implement a new federal security policy that is both effective and humane.

Another survey helps to better understand the situation. The Datafolha survey was conducted with 626 people in the capital and metropolitan region of Rio.

It exposes a welcome contradiction within the electorate, signaling yet another opening to build an anti-fascist solution to the problem of violence.

Although 57% considered the action a success and 51% agreed with the phrase "the only good criminal is a dead criminal," an overwhelming majority of 77% stated that investigating and arresting criminals is more important than killing them.

Governor Cláudio Castro's approval rating was 40%, with a disapproval rating of 34%.

Data from Datafolha also shows how deeply ingrained violence is in daily life. 38% of Rio's population saw people with rifles in the last 12 months. 66% feel that the actions of organized crime directly interfere in their lives.

One hopeful aspect of this research is that 88% support the mandatory use of body cameras by police officers.

Furthermore, 73% consider it wrong to say that those who die in raids are always criminals.

This reveals a desire for more control and less lethality, despite the fear and the enormous propaganda for violent solutions to the problem of public safety.

Click here To download the full Quaest survey.