It's not just about the gravity, but the quantity, Joe!!!
The biggest problem isn't the "severity" of the disease. The critical focus is on its high capacity to rapidly overwhelm hospitals with people in need of some kind of treatment. With hospitals at capacity, doctors will quickly have to "decide" something terrible: who should or should not be treated, that is, who should or should not live!
The problem with those who defend the American alternative and, even more insanely, the Bolsonaro approach to the Covid-19 crisis, is that their minds are primarily focused on the economy... the market... money... profit!
They believe in the Market as the supreme God of the economy. They are adherents of the Neoliberal Model (often without really knowing what that is) in which nothing should stop the flow of money.
I consider it a serious ethical, moral, economic, and political mistake.
I don't see how to isolate, "vertically" (as Trump and the lunatic Bolsonaro want), a virus that acts horizontally.
The biggest problem isn't the "severity" of the disease (which is complicated in itself). The critical focus is on its high capacity to quickly overwhelm hospitals with people in need of some kind of treatment.
With hospitals at an all-clear capacity, doctors will quickly have to "decide" something terrible: who should or should not be treated, in other words, who should or should not live!
There won't be room for everyone, as is the case today in rich countries that are far more structured than ours.
Yesterday was another day of piling up bodies in Italy and Spain, and seeing deaths rise in Portugal, France, Germany, England... it's a cruel picture! There's neither time nor sanitary conditions for dignified burials or tears.
Let's imagine a city like Rio de Janeiro (just Rio) with about 6,3 million people.
The virus will probably affect everyone... both men and women!
Statistically, approximately 15% of those infected with Covid-19 will require hospitalization.
15% of (+-) 6.300.000 = (+-) 945.000... thus, in theory, this is the number of people who may need some hospital treatment.
5% will need ICU = approximately 315.000 people, in theory, will have serious complications.
Are there enough hospitals and beds to meet this demand? (This calculation applies to any city!)
The entire country of Brazil has 32.000 ICU beds, and 80% of these spaces, across different states, are currently occupied by patients from the normal functioning of the SUS (Brazilian public healthcare system).
Does anyone know how many ICU beds are available in Rio de Janeiro to treat these potential (+/-) 315.000 patients?
The challenge is to distribute this number of infected people over a longer period of time so that the health systems do not collapse and can care for a greater number of people, thus saving more lives.
Can anyone imagine the coronavirus invading the poor communities and favelas of big cities?
What will we do about the seriously ill patients crowding in front of hospitals?
There are no spaces reserved for the rich or the poor. The chaos will be enormous and absolutely for everyone.
In this scenario, until a "proven" effective remedy (or vaccine) emerges, quarantine is the only way to "slow down" the rate of infection, preserve the healthcare system, and reduce the possibility of total pandemonium.
The logic of the neoliberal "Market" is different.
For these people, pragmatism points to another path: since everyone tends to get infected, let the infection run its course and affect everyone... whoever dies, dies!!!!!... life goes on!! As a "social image," let's isolate the elderly and sick to preserve the politically correct discourse.
With such a decision, the possibility of losses and disruption to the current economy is reduced and limited in time... profits, after the crisis, will soon return to the great joy of those living.
There are other paths to be taken.
From a human and compassionate standpoint, only social isolation and effective government support in protecting people and jobs will demonstrate that we still preserve the civilizing spirit that we have (hard-won) built over the centuries.
* This is an opinion article, the responsibility of the author, and does not reflect the opinion of Brasil 247.
