There is no "communist threat" to a new March 31st.

By Alex Solnik, columnist for 247 and member of Journalists for Democracy

They cause hives and nausea in some, and there are those who tear their hair out because of President Jair Bolsonaro's incendiary and outrageous statements.

To say that the dictatorship wasn't a dictatorship is to praise the dictatorship, as well as to distort history.

The series of attacks on the press, Congress, and the Supreme Court dramatically expose his authoritarian tendencies and his lack of ability – and willingness – to govern within the rules of democracy.

Skipping work to go to the movies while the Social Security circus is on fire was one of the highlights of this style that embarrasses and frightens the country. Constantly clashing with the Speaker of the House and the Supreme Court has been another.

In this unprecedented context in recent Brazilian history, speculations arise that this supposed lack of will to govern, this lethargy, this succession of conflicts that he provokes with the other two branches of government, are movements aimed at creating the conditions for a self-coup d'état, to use the terminology of Vice President Hamilton Mourão, similar to what Getúlio Vargas did on November 11, 1937: he promoted himself from president to dictator.

However, simply sowing the wind, as Bolsonaro has been doing, is not enough to create the perfect storm he desires.

Bolsonaro lacks, first and foremost, what Getúlio (and the generals of 1964) had: a pretext. A "good" reason. A convincing reason, one that the majority cannot disagree with.

(Learn about and support the project) Journalists for Democracy)

Both the self-coup of 1937 and the coup d'état of 1964 were justified by the "communist threat." Getúlio Vargas brandished the Cohen Plan, an alleged project for the invasion of the country by the communists "devised" by the Comintern; the coup plotters of '64 convinced the population that a supposed communist coup à la Fidel Castro was underway and that everyone would be expelled from their homes.

Getúlio and the generals of '64 touted the need for the coup d'état to "protect Brazilians from communism." And a large portion of Brazilians fell for it.

The "communist threat" no longer exists since the end of the Soviet Union. There is no Comintern anymore. No one exports communist revolution anymore. And internally, as far as is known, there is no movement from the left to seize power by force.

There is no need to "protect Brazilians" from. What is necessary, rather, is to protect Brazilians from him.

The pretext of fighting "cultural Marxism" is far too naive to justify a self-coup. No one feels threatened by it.

The other thing he lacks, and which is fundamental for a self-coup, is popular support. Nobody protested in the streets when Getúlio ordered troops to surround Congress. He was beloved. The military in '64 needed the support of the Marches for the Family to find the courage to put tanks on the road.

He has generals. But it's easier for a tank to pass through the eye of a needle than for four-star generals to help a former captain become the dictator of Brazil.

Even more so because the Army is today the most respected institution among Brazilians precisely because it has remained distant from power for the last thirty years.

(Learn about and support the project) Journalists for Democracy)