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Moses Mendes

Moisés Mendes is a journalist and author of "Everyone Wants to Be Mujica" (Diadorim Publishing). He was a special editor and columnist for Zero Hora, in Porto Alegre.

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The Bolsonaro of the 'that's it, damn it!' threats no longer exists.

"Don't expect Bolsonaro to once again attend coup-mongering demonstrations in Brasília alongside his generals or to make threatening statements. The Bolsonaro of delirium and coup farce no longer exists," says columnist Moisés Mendes.

Jair Bolsonaro at the Alvorada Palace in Brasília (Photo: REUTERS/Adriano Machado)

Bolsonaro's quarantine ends on Tuesday the 21st, if the two weeks of isolation since the announcement of his positive test on July 7th are completed.

Until then, he can remain secluded, which suits him best since Queiroz's arrest and the unmasking of the coup as a bluff, and make only a few brief and occasional appearances.

Bolsonaro can record videos, call the harmonica player, and promote chloroquine with background music. He can even pretend to be Bolsonaro, while perfecting the role of an infected person who hasn't infected anyone around him.

But at some point Bolsonaro will have to stop being a showman. He will have to go out into the streets, circulate, receive visitors, participate in events, give speeches and, if he has the courage, even return to the circle of supporters who applauded him every morning when he left the Alvorada Palace.

Bolsonaro has eight more days to plan his return. His retreat has deactivated his supporters, silenced the generals, and frustrated those who took his "it's over, damn it" threat seriously.

That "it's over, damn it" in the enclosure, directed at the Supreme Court, is from May 28th. The threat to kick the hornet's nest is from June 17th. Queiroz was arrested the following day. On the 19th, Bolsonaro sent three ministers to Alexandre de Moraes's house in São Paulo.

On the 20th, Dias Toffoli stated in a virtual lecture that it is a mistake to try to see the Armed Forces as a moderating power. Three days after the Supreme Court president's outburst, Globo published an editorial with a message to Bolsonaro and the military, defining the coup threats as delusional and a farce.

Bolsonaro was wilting, dejected by the series of messages he received from the Supreme Court, suggested a truce, and then cowered. The positive Covid-19 test is now enshrined as part of the retreat plan.

But Bolsonaro will have to be Bolsonaro again or invent another persona when his quarantine ends. Until the 21st, the home office version of Bolsonaro can put on a show and imitate the Bolsonaro from the "little enclosure." But that's not enough. 

The challenge of returning is immense, not only for the leader but for his subordinates, including the generals. Bolsonaro used to have his aide play the harmonica, and the military would dance and sing verses threatening a coup. The party is at a standstill.

It is reported daily that the activists have become disoriented by Bolsonaro's apathy and rhetorical seclusion, as well as Facebook's blocking of more than 80 accounts belonging to the "Hate Cabinet."

Business leaders are uneasy. International investors are pushing for something to happen, even though they don't know what can or should happen.

Bolsonaro hasn't won a single battle in the last two weeks, because not even Queiroz's release can be celebrated.

He has lost strength and repertoire. He doesn't face the pressure from the streets, as some thought would happen, but he is a man cornered by his family's legal troubles and the fragility of his political support.

The support of the centrist bloc is an expensive and unstable form of usury. How long will the military backing remain intact? Bolsonaro is the makeshift wire that could snap at any moment, while the pandemic spreads.

Don't expect Bolsonaro to once again attend coup-mongering demonstrations in Brasília alongside his generals, or to make threatening statements. The Bolsonaro of delusion and coup-mongering farce no longer exists.

Anyone who wants to can look for it, but that Bolsonaro of 'it's over, damn it' doesn't exist anymore.

* This is an opinion article, the responsibility of the author, and does not reflect the opinion of Brasil 247.