Mourão strengthens his Senate candidacy by opening the barracks to Lula.

By César Fonseca 

Vice President General Hamilton Mourão's democratic leanings are being used as a weapon to attract votes from the broad front for his Senate candidacy, as he emphasizes that there is no reason for the military not to agree with a predictable Lula victory according to the polls, knowing that the electoral game requires votes to build democratic representation in parliament. 

If Mourão is seeking votes, while Bolsonaro dismisses him as a potential vice-presidential candidate, since he is secretly advocating a preference for General Braga as his running mate in his reelection bid, then the fate of the current occupant of the Jaburu Palace is sealed. 

He will, of course, not put all his eggs in one electoral basket; he will shower confetti on Lula's candidacy, defending his right to run, take office, and govern, if duly consecrated at the polls, the cornerstone of the democratic process.

Mourão's decision to declare, beforehand, that Lula's participation in the election is entirely legal creates a new political fact, something he contested in the last election when he embraced Bolsonaro's ideology and the instrument that propelled him to the presidency, namely Operation Lava Jato.

It fosters a political environment so that the military makes a similar choice, as a factor in strengthening democracy; the vice-president, directly or indirectly, endorses Lula's candidacy with his gesture as a candidate, immunizing him from the resentment of potential military coups. 

From a pragmatic standpoint, would the Workers' Party candidate be inclined to accept the general's statements as positive and promising, thus rewarding them politically in support of his Senate candidacy?

Would this be part of Lula's strategy of securing democratic military support for his potential government from the outset, in the pursuit of parliamentary sustainability? 

Two-way policy

Therefore, what is at stake is the construction of a two-way political path between General Mourão and Lula; the vice-president general guarantees, by establishing bases of support from the military for Lula, a return in votes given by Lula for the gesture of support for Mourão; would this constitute a tacit alliance or not? 

The fact is that Mourão's words disarm the military regarding the Workers' Party's presidential candidacy. Would this paint a deterrent flag for the PT candidate, or not? 

For the vice president, could the return on such a political investment materialize as a predictable victory for him in the Senate? And, in turn, as a potential senator-elect, would the general become an interlocutor for a future Workers' Party president? 

Would a political détente begin between the PT (Workers' Party) and the military if the election polls are confirmed at the ballot box, when their opponent Bolsonaro would be facing an economic crisis that is set to deepen in the coming months, with rising unemployment, wage stagnation, underconsumption, and hunger amidst the consequences of the ongoing war in Ukraine?

Chaos in Fuel Pricing Policy

The immediate grim outlook for Bolsonaro, in this game of rapprochement between Lula and Mourão, would be his inability to confront the main economic issue of the moment, both here and in the world: the increase in prices of petroleum derivatives, stemming from the outbreak of the war, aggravated by Petrobras' pricing policy which is detrimental to consumer interests.

The dollarization of prices forces consumers to bear tariffs quoted in dollars, while receiving salaries in reais amid escalating currency devaluation, driving inflation; the deterioration of the terms of trade is devastating the purchasing power of wage earners.

In this context, if Mourão, politically and in search of votes, criticizes the dollarization of fuels, siding with Lula, who makes a similar criticism, and promises, from now on, a change in the calculation of gasoline and diesel prices, breaking with import price parity (PPI), the electoral damage will be devastating for Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro, who is being pressured to leave the current policy as it is—that is, favorable to Petrobras' private shareholders while harming the national consumer—would simply lose the election.

Would the president yield to pressure from Washington, which favors dollarization and the exploitation of wage laborers, crushed by neoliberal labor reform, as advocated today by O Globo, mouthpiece of the Empire and its oil allies, or would he turn the tables? 

If the deal doesn't turn around, and Petrobras' unpopular pricing policy persists, Lula's lead increases and, consequently, so does that of General Mourão, who, unusually, rides on Lula's coattails, slated to come in first place.