Mexico: A sovereignist and anti-neoliberal gamble

"Poor Mexico. So far from God and so close to the United States," the famous phrase attributed to General Porfirio Diaz (1830-1915), who governed the Mexican nation for more than 30 years, reveals the troubled relationship between Mexico and the United States.

Donald Trump's return to the US government has increased tensions between the two countries, and it occurs during the process of resuming a policy of sovereignist affirmation in Mexico, governed in recent years (2028-2024) by a left-wing nationalist party, Morena – National Regeneration Movement.

The new course adopted in Mexico, called the Fourth Transformation, gained momentum with the electoral victory in 2018 of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, also known by the acronym AMLO, who combined an anti-corruption discourse with measures to dismantle the neoliberal adjustment economic policies and privatization of state assets implemented by the government of Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI).

In his inaugural address in December 2018, López Obrador declared: “Privatization in Mexico has been synonymous with corruption; unfortunately, this disease has almost always existed in our country, but what happened during the neoliberal period is unprecedented in modern times—the system as a whole operated in favor of corruption. Political power and economic power fed and nourished each other, and the theft of the people's assets and the nation's wealth became established as the modus operandi.”

López Obrador's rhetoric had a political effect, guaranteeing growing popularity throughout his term and solid support among the Mexican working class. The Mexican president politicized the issue of corruption, adopting a class-based approach against speculators and the privileges of high-ranking state officials, allies and beneficiaries of the neoliberal model. Austerity measures targeted "those at the top" and not "those at the bottom," cutting perks and financial advantages for the upper echelons of government.

The economic and social advances of the Morena government were robust: workers achieved a real increase in the minimum wage of around 82%, workers' share of national income increased, and unemployment rates fell to 2,59% (December 2024), impacting poverty reduction in all regions of the country. Furthermore, the government promoted social projects and programs for indigenous communities, for poor urban youth, and established community universities in rural areas. These programs combined lifted 8,8 million Mexicans out of poverty.

In 2019, the López Obrador government implemented labor reforms that allowed for greater freedom of union organization and facilitated the dismantling of the bureaucracy of "state unionism," one of the levers of the long hegemony, spanning seven decades, of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).

In foreign policy, the López Obrador government advocated for greater Latin American integration, actively participated in the campaign for the release of journalist Julio Assange, supported Cuba and called for an end to the blockade against the island, denounced the war of aggression against Palestinians promoted by the Zionist state of Israel, and acted with firmness and pragmatism in the face of the United States government. This political conduct was followed by President Claudia Sheinbaum in the arena of international politics.

The renationalization of the oil and electricity sectors.

President Claudia Sheinbaum, the first woman to hold the presidency of Mexico, prioritized efforts in her five months in office (she took office on October 1, 2024) to consolidate the process of renationalizing Pemex (Petróleos Mexicanos) and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), one of Morena's most cherished promises when it won the national government.

A decisive step in this direction was the Senate's approval last week of the government's proposed measure to renationalize the energy sector, which received 85 votes in favor, 36 votes against, and one abstention. The bill now goes to the Chamber of Deputies for debate and voting.

The process of renationalizing the energy sector began in 2021, and in November 2024, the Mexican government restored the public company status of Pemex and CEF, ensuring the foundations of an energy sovereignty policy and breaking with the privatizing and denationalizing cycle of the neoliberal governments of Vicente Fox and Peña Nieto.

The bill proposed by Claudia Sheinbaum's government stipulates that Pemex should have a minimum 40% stake in oil exploration and production projects in partnership with the private sector. In the electricity sector, the reform mandates that the CFE grid must produce at least 54% of the electricity generated in Mexico.

President Claudia Sheinbaum, on Saturday (1), during the inauguration of a new power plant, the Salamanca Combined Cycle Power Plant, a project of the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), stated that “only a traitor hands over his country to foreigners”. Here we fight for the sovereignty and independence of Mexico. We are a free, independent and sovereign country. We do not hand over the nation's resources to anyone.” The new plant was designed and started by the government of former President López Obrador, as part of the plan to recover the state's role in the sector.

The Fourth Transformation and the challenges of structural reforms

López Obrador's positive legacy sheds light on the new challenges facing Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, which is confronted with a situation marked by Donald Trump's aggressive foreign policy. Mexico has a delicate agenda regarding migration, the taxation of Mexican manufactured goods by the Trump administration, and arms and drug trafficking at the border.

Domestically, Sheinbaum's government faces the challenge of consolidating a bold judicial reform, initiated by Obrador, which establishes direct elections for judges at all levels. The reform, approved by parliament, also stipulates that candidates for the Supreme Court will be nominated by the three branches of government, with a 12-year term, previously 15 years.

President Sheinbaum is also overseeing the continuation of important infrastructure projects: the new international airport for Mexico City, the Dos Bocas refinery, and the project for a railway – the Maya Train – linking the entire southeast of Mexico.

The programmatic foundations of the Fourth Transformation are presented as a historical aspect of three powerful political and social processes that occurred in the country: Independence from Spanish rule (1810-21), the Liberal Reform, led by Benito Juárez (1857-1861), and the Agrarian Revolution of 1910, led by Emiliano Zapata and Pancho Villa, which overthrew the dictatorship of Porfirio Díaz.

The Morena party, the ruling party, has a sovereignist flavor and draws inspiration from the best traditions of the republican and liberal reforms of the late 19th century, and from the Zapatista revolutionary movement, social events that established the definitive contours of the Mexican national state.

The Mexican government's agenda focuses on strengthening the role of the state and on income redistribution policies, without resorting to regressive fiscal adjustments and the privatization of public assets, which has been successful.

*He is a columnist for several progressive and left-wing media websites and portals. He is the author of the books 'Lava Jato, a conspiracy against Brazil' [Kotter, 2021] and 'Brazil Without a Mask – the Bolsonaro government and the destruction of the country' [Kotter, 2022], among other works. He holds a postgraduate degree in Political Science. He is an activist with the Workers' Party (PT) in Curitiba..