Memes in letters

Lula IV

Lula confirmed this week what even the inner circle at the Presidential Palace already knew: he will be a candidate for a fourth presidential term. The announcement, although expected, caused disarray within Bolsonaro's ranks. Tarcísio may reconsider whether it's worthwhile to enter this race now, and some Centrão parliamentarians may evaluate whether it makes sense to remain – even with only one foot – in Ciro Nogueira's camp. The result: in a one-on-one scenario, the government tends to expand its base in Congress.

First round

The AtlasIntel poll provides the key to understanding how Lula's campaign should proceed next year: aim for a first-round victory. Given the still-crystallized polarization in the country, it's unlikely that a third option will emerge to force a second round. The advantage Lula has been building in recent months – ironically boosted by the "great help" of his unwitting marketing strategist, Bananinha – justifies betting on the current president's victory as early as October 4th of next year.

queen

And speaking of chaos, the Bolsonaro family is a bull in a china shop. As if it wasn't enough that Bananinha (Bolsonaro's nickname) imploded the presidential candidacy of his own camp, now Carluxo (Carlos Bolsonaro's nickname) is dynamiting Bolsonaro's candidacies in Santa Catarina by launching his Senate run. The most voted-for Bolsonaro-supporting congresswoman in the state has already sent her message: "I owe nothing to anyone, I'm going to run independently." Things are heating up.

Bunker

When the infantry is being massacred, the commander takes a step back and reorganizes the troops. This was the move made by Minister Luiz Fux when he requested a change of Chamber in the Supreme Federal Court: he seeks a bunker in the 2nd Chamber, aligning himself with ministers identified with Bolsonarism to offer resistance from within the collegiate body to theses with which he disagrees – such as the recognition that there was an attempted coup by a criminal organization led by Jair Bolsonaro.

Infondato

And wouldn't you know it, the Italian Public Prosecutor's Office deemed unfounded the arguments of the Spanish woman—oops, Carla Zambelli—that she was a victim of political persecution in Brazil? According to the Italian Public Prosecutor's Office, the convictions and proceedings against her were conducted within due process of law. Meanwhile, the Spanish-Italian woman is likely landing on Brazilian soil.