Mediocrity of opponents could re-elect Haddad.

The 2018 election begins to be defined in the 2016 municipal elections, but, before any other election, the election for mayor of São Paulo leads the symbolism of what should happen in two years in the succession of Dilma – or, if the worst happens, of the usurper who is in the Presidency.

In this context, middle-class residents of São Paulo know that, because he belongs to the PT (Workers' Party), Mayor Fernando Haddad's successful administration is not recognized by a segment of the city's population. However, partisan and ideological antipathy is not greater than the survival instinct, even among the middle classes who hate the PT.

On the evening of last Monday (16), TV Bandeirantes, as usual, inaugurated the season of debates between candidates for major offices – one day, who knows, we might have debates between candidates for the Legislative branch, which would prevent the election of so many crooks as councilors, deputies or senators. Not only the performance of the candidates, but even polls The debate results showed that Haddad performed better than his opponents.

The biggest surprise of the night was the presence of Celso Russomanno. Until hours before the debate, he claimed that the exclusion of candidates like Luiza Erundina from the debate due to the new electoral legislation was unfair and, therefore, he would not participate. An obvious excuse to avoid facing his opponents, since he is ahead in the polls.

In the first segment, the candidates were asked what they would do, if elected, to generate jobs in the city. Haddad cited projects from his administration, such as the widening of several roads, thanks to the reduction of the municipal debt to "less than half." He also highlighted the creation of 100 daycare spots, but faced criticism from his opponents.

A critic of the PT (Workers' Party), João Doria (PSDB) said that the way forward is to attract "new national and multinational investments." He said he will value "entrepreneurship" in areas such as "gastronomy and events" and "rescue the city's values." He also stated that it is important to "pray that the economy performs differently," in a direct criticism of the PT administration in the federal government.

Former Workers' Party member Marta Suplicy (PMDB) promised to create the "People's Bank, to give opportunities to women who are at home and want to make snacks to sell, and to those who want to buy a toolbox." She also promised to "act on all unfinished projects, which is what exists most in this city," in a criticism of Haddad.

Betting on radical anti-PT rhetoric, Major Olímpio (Solidariedade) stated that it is necessary to "comply with the law" to generate jobs. "The mayor sanctioned the Strategic Master Plan, but he didn't read it," he said. He also called the PT administration in the capital a "metastasis" of a "gang."

Mayor Haddad and Senator Marta criticized João Doria's (PSDB) policies toward minorities in the city of São Paulo. The discussion began when Marta, in a question to Doria, accused him of treating minorities, such as Black people, wheelchair users, and the LGBT population, as "trinkets." The PSDB member retorted: "I didn't call them trinkets."

Then, after Doria asked Haddad about the state of public health, the subject returned to minorities. "You have a habit of [talking about] cutting costs in priority areas," the Workers' Party member said to the PSDB candidate, referring to policies for Black people and women.

Doria accused Haddad of having "such a poor performance" in public health that he was diverting the issue. Haddad responded: "I am astonished by your lack of knowledge of the city. You promised to eliminate the Youth and LGBT secretariats, which could exist, but don't."

Haddad is a great debater. Those unfamiliar with the mayor of São Paulo can see below how he crushed his opponent José Serra in the 2012 municipal election.

If it were up to Haddad, he would be re-elected. But, obviously, it doesn't depend solely on him. Besides predictably having the media against him, he would also have to contend with the anti-PT sentiment of the loud, vocal elite of the Jardins neighborhood, who influenced the rest of São Paulo's capital in the coup against Dilma.

However, when it comes to city management, even the least irrational part of this elite won't have the courage to put television minor celebrities in the mayor's office, which could result in disaster in a city as sensitive as São Paulo.

Indeed, if Dória or Russomano were elected, with their plans to benefit the most privileged segments of the population, they would soon see a repeat of the 2013 protests, only now with justification, as they will be working to take away the rights of the poorest residents of São Paulo.

Even residents of São Paulo's "upscale neighborhoods" know that Sampa is a pressure cooker. That's why I've often been surprised to see anti-PT (Workers' Party) voters saying that, given the current situation, they'll have to vote for Haddad to prevent the city from sinking.

Marta Suplicy angered the residents of São Paulo during her administration. And, by betraying the PT (Workers' Party) and joining the right wing, her electorate, residing in the city's outskirts, will abandon her. She doesn't convince the wealthy – they say once a PT supporter, always a PT supporter.

Doria is ridiculous. He's a rich guy who knows little about the city outside the so-called "upscale neighborhoods" and who is, almost openly, the candidate of the white elite of São Paulo.

 

Does Russomano have a better chance? It's relative. If he continues attending debates, he will be exposed, just like he was in 2012 when he proposed that those who use buses for longer journeys should pay a higher fare. Russomano is his own worst enemy. He will end up giving himself away during the campaign.

Everyone knows that São Paulo is being well-managed. Most of the city hall's impactful actions are well-received. The reduction of vehicle speeds in the capital has high approval ratings, the bus lanes have high approval ratings, the bike paths have high approval ratings…

The only thing preventing Haddad from being a highly rated mayor is the obsessive anti-PT sentiment of a large segment of São Paulo's residents, but a significant part of this contingent can be reasoned with and convinced to abandon an adventure like placing a metropolis as important as São Paulo in the hands of adventurers like Dória and Russomano.

Erundina is a serious woman, despite her support for Marina Silva in 2014 and her independence from the Central Bank, but she won't go anywhere. Her party, even unjustifiably, frightens the people of São Paulo; as for Marta, if there's one thing Brazilians detest, it's traitors. Even in prisons they are vilified. And Marta is what they usually call a "traitor".