Lula won, but the darkness of Lava Jato remains active.

By Paulo Moreira Leite, for the Journalists for Democracy

The trial at the Superior Court of Justice (STJ) followed the path used by the Justice system when it needs to correct a blatant error but does not intend to pursue the matter to its ultimate consequences. In Lula's case, this would be equivalent to rejecting the conviction regarding the triplex apartment on its merits, due to the lack of evidence and the failure to respect the presumption of innocence. 

The importance of the decision must be understood within this context. By a 4-0 vote, the country's second-highest court admitted that he received excessive sentences, both from Moro (9 years) and the TRF-4 (12). The reduction was to 8 years and ten months. This is no small matter, considering the monolithic bloc that defended Lava Jato since the capture of that political leader whose imprisonment altered the presidential succession and paved the way for the institutional abyss in which the country finds itself today. 

 "It was the first time a court recognized that Lula had received abusive sentences," said Orlando Zanin, Lula's lawyer, after the trial. 

 What hasn't changed is Lula's central place in the country's political landscape.

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If the Supreme Court had granted a larger reduction to the sentence—six years instead of eight—it's possible he could already be packing his bags to leave his cell in Curitiba. With the sentence reduction, now set at eight years and ten months, it is estimated that he will be eligible to leave prison at the end of September, approximately. 

 Let's not kid ourselves, however. Lula is and continues to be a political target. This is because his freedom continues to be seen as a threat to the political and legal forces that plunged the country into darkness. The long list of Lava Jato investigations already has a sentence ready for a second-instance ruling, regarding the Atibaia property, in which Lula was sentenced to 12 years and 11 months. If this case goes to the TRF-4 (Regional Federal Court of the 4th Region), it's possible to imagine a particularly cruel situation. Even released late for the triplex apartment case, he could remain in jail because of the Atibaia property case. 

This is not a fatality, however. Brazil in 2019, experiencing firsthand the tragedy of losing its greatest political leader, is witnessing the accelerated weakening of the Lava Jato-Bolsonaro alliance. The reduction of the sentence is part of this process.  

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This situation favors the defense of Lula's rights, but the increasing instability of the situation forces us to recognize that nothing is guaranteed for the next five months—the timeframe for his release. Heard after the trial, Lula himself said that his conviction is political—and his release will be too.

 Any questions?