Lula wants Ciro as Haddad's running mate.

Understanding what Lula thinks, especially now that he's imprisoned and speaks through spokespeople, is a task for a Chinese person. I imagined that a possible alliance with the PDT and the nomination of Ciro Gomes as his vice-presidential candidate would imply a replacement at the top of the ticket if Lula were disqualified. And that's why neither I nor Flamengo fans understood why Ciro refused the proposal, since it was almost certain that he would be the next president that way, as all the stars predict Lula will be barred. And, conversely, if he continues his solo flight, disaster is foreseeable.

Now I understand better. The fact is that what Lula wants is for Ciro to be his vice-presidential candidate, yes, but in case his candidacy is rejected, he should remain as the running mate of the candidate Lula indicates. And that will probably be Fernando Haddad. There's no more time for other names to emerge. Jacques Wagner is out.

This is the arrangement that Ciro rejects. And it explains his fury in recent days. Lula does not accept the idea of ​​handing over the presidency of the Republic to Ciro and the PDT, the party that once belonged to Brizola, with his votes. He is working to ensure that, even if he is prevented from doing so, the PT reaches the Planalto Palace. Not the PDT. And Ciro does not accept this. Manuela D'Ávila would also play this role. And she accepted. But Lula rejected her because she does not have Ciro's voting intentions.

The calculation is as follows. Without Lula in the race, Ciro has 7%, Haddad 2%, and Manuela 1%. It's unclear exactly how much of his 30% Lula will transfer to his chosen successor. Polls show that he triples the support. Ciro and Haddad together total 9%. With his endorsement, they could reach 27%. A second round is guaranteed. Manuela and Haddad together total 3%.

Lula weakened Ciro's candidacy as much as possible. He left him in a dead end, betting that, without any prospect of reaching the second round, he would give up. Both have strong personalities, to say the least. They rarely change their minds.

Current figures show that if they don't reach an agreement, and Lula isn't a candidate, neither Ciro without Lula nor Haddad without Ciro will be able to reach the second round.

This is the question that the two leading presidential candidates from the two largest left-wing parties must resolve. A runoff election between Bolsonaro and Alckmin would be the biggest defeat for the progressive camp since 1989.

Alckmin's agenda is the same as Temer's government's agenda without Temer. Even further to the right. It's the continuation of the public spending cap for 20 years, the labor reform, the approval of the pension reform, and the continued sale of national assets.

Bolsonaro's agenda is that of a former army captain. Not even the military dictatorship accepted captains to lead the country.