Lula at the White House: diplomacy works well, but caution is always necessary.

Lula and Trump will meet at the White House in March, as widely reported. The bilateral meeting should consolidate a civilized relationship, in which each country works for its commercial interests and in accordance with the geopolitical limitations determined by international law. It will be a victory for diplomacy, representing a spectacular evolution since the American government rhetorically attacked Brazilian sovereignty by attempting to interfere in the process that condemned Jair Bolsonaro and imposed, only to later withdraw, monstrous trade tariffs on us.

The paragraph above would be perfect – and the situation would deserve celebration – were it not for Donald Trump occupying one of the seats at the bilateral meeting in March. 

Lula and the Brazilian diplomatic corps are skillful and careful, but the counterpart is unstable, unpredictable, and often tyrannical. One cannot forget the discomfort that BRICS has always caused Trump, nor disregard the Brazilian statesman's public stances against the attack on Venezuela and, especially, regarding the creation of the so-called Peace Council. Lula stated explicitly that Trump intends to create a UN for himself and that such an attitude opposes multilateralism.

“One can expect any kind of reaction from President Trump, but it seems to me that the outbursts against Brazil are a thing of the past, especially due to the actions of diplomacy, whether state diplomacy or business diplomacy, which have changed relations between governments,” assesses Wagner Menezes, professor of International Law at USP and member of the UN panel of arbitrators.

According to Menezes, Lula's statements are part of the democratic process and do not constitute an official position of Brazil in opposition to the American government. Regarding the March meeting, however, the professor recommends caution: "I would consider this meeting between Lula and Trump a risk, since Trump and his team have already embarrassed world leaders at the White House." 

It is reported that the Brazilian government will seek a partnership with Washington to combat organized crime, based on concrete areas of action, such as actions against money laundering, the sharing of financial data on suspects, and the search for fugitives. At first glance, the gesture seems like a weakening of Brazil's much-vaunted national sovereignty, contradicting the discourse that we are not a country dominated by crime nor do we accept that another country comes to combat anyone within our territory. But it's not quite like that.

According to Professor Wagner Menezes, this is a strategic move to be applauded: “I think it’s quite positive; I think it generates a certain type of proactive diplomatic language whose objective is precisely to avoid any kind of more forceful intervention by the United States in Brazil. This type of diplomatic initiative disarms any narrative from the US government in this area.”

If it is, let's say, preventive-strategic in nature, the Brazilian initiative makes perfect sense, especially if we consider that the Bolsonaro-supporting right wing will try to portray Brazil as a state dominated by organized crime in the presidential elections, and that this unhinged mob does not hesitate to ask the United States to invade Brazil "to fight crime."

It's worth remembering that, in January 2026, FBI agents captured a suspected drug trafficker linked to the Sinaloa Cartel in Mexico. The operation was described as secret and generated tension with the Mexican government, which claims the operation was conducted without permission. Mexican authorities considered it an interference in the country's jurisdiction. This was an operation that crossed borders and generated a diplomatic impasse regarding sovereignty and the role of American forces on foreign soil – something the Brazilian government wants and needs to avoid, as extreme caution is necessary when insane right-wingers remain ready to overthrow our democracy.