Lula is betting on middle and working classes to counter the amnesty offensive.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva directed his September 7th speech to the middle and working classes, pointing to them as the core support for defending the national flag and institutional stability. This strategy counters the advance of the political system and the economic establishment in orchestrating an amnesty for those convicted in the January 8th coup. This measure, sponsored by the United States, is seen as essential to enabling the presidential candidacy of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, and to repositioning the White House in his favor in the 2026 elections.

"Sovereignty lies in defending democracy and fighting inequality, all forms of privilege for the few at the expense of the rights of the many. If we have the right to these public policies, it is because Brazil is a sovereign country and has made the decision to take care of the Brazilian people. A sovereign country is a country that eliminates income tax for those earning up to R$ 5 while taxing the super-rich who currently pay almost nothing," Lula stated in a national address this Saturday.

In practice, the president broadened the concept of sovereignty, showing that it is not limited to diplomacy, the trade balance, or the Armed Forces, but manifests itself in everyday life: when the population recognizes itself as a beneficiary of redistributive policies, not only as a taxpayer, and when it perceives these improvements as possible thanks to democracy and tax justice. This approach has helped Lula balance forces with the Centrão (center-right bloc) and the financial market, regaining competitiveness for 2026.

In this sense, the Civic-Military Parade highlighted expressions of democratic commitment, such as the memory of those who fought against Nazism and Fascism in the Second World War, the protection of national resources, such as the IBAMA forest firefighters, and social well-being, such as the SUS task force, students from the Pé-de-Meia program, and Paralympic athletes benefiting from public initiatives.

Last week, American authorities instructed business leaders who were in Washington to try to reverse the tariff increase to concentrate their lobbying efforts in Brasília for the approval of the amnesty. The proposal could be put to a vote even before the income tax reform, according to parliamentarians involved in the negotiations. To increase the pressure, US President Donald Trump called the Brazilian government "radical left," a term he often uses against opponents he intends to subdue.

Back to 2014?

By mobilizing the middle and working classes, the president also signaled to business leaders and investors that he does not depend solely on them to sustain the struggle. On Friday, Tarcísio spoke at the Stock Exchange, where he defended private enterprise as the engine of transformation and the market as an instrument for reducing inequalities, pointing to the core of his potential administration.

Lula's speeches on the eve of Independence Day, and Tarcísio's speech at B3, indicate that the main political, social, and economic forces are moving to accumulate support in 2026, but there are doubts as to whether they are projecting a scenario that could result in an uncertain outcome or in a renewal of the democratic pact.

Predictions are already circulating about a close race, followed by prolonged tension in the form of a "third round." A scenario similar to that of 2014, however under the context of the exhaustion of the fiscal framework from 2027 onwards, according to calculations by Faria Lima, which tends to intensify the "us versus them" climate and institutional instability.

In his speech, Lula demonstrated that he intends to double down on his platform of "poor people in the budget and rich people in income tax," but revamped as the axis of "credibility, predictability, and stability" necessary for national defense.

According to analysts, the only likely alternative to prolonging the conflict is a new fiscal pact that reconciles austerity, the prerogatives of the branches of government, social demands, and climate pressures, coupled with an updated national consensus on Brazil's geopolitical position. After all, even perceptions of the US and China are shaped by political and social polarization, according to recent research.