Lula in the center. And the left?

Lula, as is well known, is a center-left politician. He exercises a leadership style characterized by a fundamental commitment to the poorest and to workers, by dialogue with the most diverse political, social, and economic sectors, and by conciliatory tendencies that constitute the core of the continuity/change duality in Brazil's political history. In short: Lula is not a politician of ruptures, but of changes marked by shades of continuity. Or, as André Singer says, by a weak reformism.

To want Lula to be something else at this point in time is to misunderstand what Lula represents in his political history. It is to disregard political action founded on the principle of reality and instead try to impose upon it the principle of illusion. This does not mean that Lula's candidacy is not a field of political dispute and susceptible to tensions in one direction or another. 

For example: it seems that Lula has already decided that his running mate will be Alckmin. This decision, however, does not imply that the left-wing factions within the PT (Workers' Party) will not influence the direction of the candidacy, either through criticism of this composition or through programmatic formulations and demands related to the campaign. 

Just as Lula and the moderate factions within the PT have their reasons for their candidacies, so do the left-wing factions. Lula and the moderates focus more on the current situation and the tactics it entails. The left-wing factions, on the other hand, look more to past history and a more strategic perspective. But both camps within the PT seem to overestimate the current potential presented by the electoral process.

This means that both moderates and the left wing of the PT believe that the party is experiencing a moment of exceptional strength in the current situation and that the right-wing and center-right groups are practically defeated. The basis for this conviction lies in the opinion polls for Lula, which point to the possibility of a first-round victory, and in the PT's party preference, which reaches 28%.

For moderates, then, the issues that need to be resolved are the following: try to decide the elections in the first round, forge an alliance that guarantees governability (parliamentary support, etc.), provide stability to the future government, defeat the far-right by restoring democracy, and implement measures to rebuild Brazil. For the left wing of the Workers' Party (PT), if the PT is strong, in a situation similar to 1989, it is necessary to take a bolder step, with a clear left-wing program and a left-wing alliance. This would be an opportune moment to break with the historical conciliatory transitions. 

The first point to be made concerns the strength of the PT (Workers' Party). It is necessary to distinguish between electoral strength and organized social strength. Electoral strength is not the same as strength for mobilization or confrontation. Since 2013, the left in general has been losing all battles that require street mobilization. Therefore, it is necessary to understand that there is a disconnect between electoral strength and organized social strength, the strength for mobilization. 

Secondly, it's necessary to put election polls into perspective. There will be a campaign ahead, a fierce and bloody contest. It's not a given that Lula will win in the first round. Furthermore, the fact that the PT (Workers' Party) garners 28% of the vote doesn't mean this will translate into institutional strength. In 2018, the PT had 24% of the vote, yet it only elected 10% of the federal deputies.   

In the current situation, even with all the government's absurdities, the left and social movements haven't had the mobilizing and pressure strength to trigger an impeachment process against Bolsonaro. Let's imagine Lula is elected president. If there were an attempted coup against him, would the left and social movements have the mobilizing strength to stop it?

All things considered, the situation is this: Lula has the votes of the left and has decided to form an alliance with sectors of the center, with Alckmin as his running mate. For Lula, the problem is not only electoral, but primarily political. Despite the rhetorical clashes, Lula knows he will have to govern with the Faria Lima financial district, agribusiness, industry, the military, etc. He wants to secure political backing to guarantee governability. This is his game and the game of the moderates within the PT (Workers' Party).

For the PT's left-wing project to be more feasible, these last few years should have been marked by intense mobilizations and popular victories. This did not happen. Thus, the elections shifted fundamentally to the institutional terrain, to the electoral field itself.

Is everything lost for the left wing of the Workers' Party (PT)? If so, they should consider dissent, leaving the PT. But, apparently, there is still room for these factions within the PT. It is necessary to consider that the PT is a mass party, which allows interaction with broad social sectors. Despite its bureaucratization and its dominance by an aristocracy of leaders and officeholders, there are still spaces for contestation within the party.

The left wing of the Workers' Party (PT) can continue to strain the course of the electoral alliance, even if it doesn't reap many practical results. But it should invest in three other fronts: 1) demanding democratic and popular programmatic commitments; 2) conducting a popular mobilization campaign; and 3) striving to elect more significant representatives, strengthening itself within the party. 

The thesis being touted of "a center alliance and a left-wing program" may be merely formal. It will be necessary to assess the real commitments, both in programmatic terms and in terms of the composition of forces, that Lula's candidacy will entail. If the actual composition of the candidacy, the campaign, and the eventual future government are centrist, the implemented program will be centrist, despite the rhetorical tricks and formalities. The question is whether the left-wing factions within the Workers' Party (PT) and other supporters such as PSOL and social movements will have the capacity to articulate and the strength to extract concessions and win positions.

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