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Heba Ayyad

International journalist and Palestinian-Brazilian writer

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Gaza breathes while the West Bank remains occupied.

We are now in a testing phase for all parties.

Palestinians celebrate ceasefire (Photo: Ramadan Abed/REUTERS)

After 471 days of a war of extermination waged by the Zionist entity, with the full support of the United States and some Western countries, in the Gaza Strip—besieged since 2007 and the target of six consecutive wars before the recent 'Operation Iron Swords'—a ceasefire agreement was reached between the resistance movements. Its backbone, the main one being Hamas, and Israel, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States. It is worth noting that Egypt's role was merely that of a 'silent witness,' whose presence was important and whose absence or exclusion would have interrupted the agreement.

The agreement came into effect on the morning of Sunday, January 19, 2025, after the Zionist enemy spilled the blood of Palestinians, especially children, leaving behind a completely destroyed Gaza Strip: 47.000 martyrs, 10.000 missing, and more than 110.000 wounded. These numbers are imprecise, and the total may not be known for another year or more.

The Zionist enemy attempted to eradicate the entire Palestinian presence, relying on its unbridled thirst for revenge, while the commander of the army of slaughter and destruction declared that these people were 'human animals' and that 'there are no innocents in Gaza'. The forces of the new Hulagu carried out continuous and relentless destruction operations, devastating residential buildings and infrastructure such as electricity, water, factories, bakeries, schools, universities, hospitals, mosques, churches, shelters, UN institutions, roads, nurseries, and agricultural land.

The objective was clear: kill, kill, kill. What happened on October 7th and the group of prisoners (hostages) were merely pretexts to justify the murder and attract continued support from the Americans, Germans, British, and French.

But Israel eventually agreed to the ceasefire deal, originally presented by President Biden as an Israeli project in late May, and subsequently adopted as Security Council Resolution 2735, dated June 10. Even so, Netanyahu continued to procrastinate in order to inflict more deaths, believing he would win the battle militarily and release the hostages unconditionally, as he repeatedly stated.

We can summarize the reasons that forced Netanyahu to accept the agreement as follows:

The legendary steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance was the main factor in the acceptance of the agreement. If Netanyahu had known he could decide the battle militarily, he wouldn't have stopped for a moment. The fighting that preceded the truce two weeks ago, and the heavy losses inflicted on the Israeli army, were decisive factors in the ceasefire.

The pressure from the prisoners' families and their ongoing protests, especially after the army admitted to killing a significant number of detainees, led to several military leaders resigning or about to resign in protest against Netanyahu's intransigence.

The intervention of US President Trump, just days before the inauguration, played a decisive role in forcing Israel to comply with the agreement. Trump wanted the fighting to end so that he could enjoy an inauguration ceremony free from news about massacres, hospital raids, and children dying of starvation. This intervention is reminiscent of the end of the war in Gaza on January 18, 2009, two days before Barack Obama's inauguration, and the liberation of hostages held in Iran after 444 days, on the morning of President Ronald Reagan's inauguration on January 20, 1981.

The truce has its pros and cons.

From the resistance's point of view, the most important clause of the agreement was to halt the Israeli killing machine, which was taking innocent lives. However, the resistance was careful not to grant Netanyahu a victory in any of the goals he set for his operations:

The resistance thwarted the plan to displace and empty Gaza of its inhabitants. Netanyahu and his generals failed to free the hostages by force.

The biggest failure was the inability to achieve a crushing defeat of Hamas and the resistance movements, as well as to expel them from Gaza.

Netanyahu's appeal to establish village associations to administer Gaza failed. The idea of ​​Gaza being administered by Western or Arab powers linked to Israel also did not succeed. When resistance fighters appeared in their uniforms, with weapons, vehicles, and police, and all manifestations of chaos and lawlessness immediately ceased, it became clear to everyone that the resistance was still strong and that no one could defeat it, including the Ramallah Authority.

Therefore, it cannot be said that the resistance accepted a humiliating truce in which it abandoned its red lines. On the contrary, it achieved significant gains, especially with the gradual withdrawal of the occupation of Gaza, the return of displaced persons, and the release of thousands of prisoners, including many who were serving long sentences. Furthermore, the entry of large quantities of humanitarian aid was approved, averaging 600 trucks per day.

However, the agreement is not without flaws and shortcomings that can be exploited by those who advocate for the continuation of the war. These factors could serve as a pretext for resuming fighting, especially after the severe criticism of Netanyahu, the withdrawal of ministers, and the resignations of high-ranking army commanders. Netanyahu does not want the war to end, and the biggest proof of this is the start of the offensive in Jenin, after his agents failed to resolve the conflict and subdue the resistance fighters under the pretext of establishing security and the rule of law.

Dividing the truce into stages, with 42-day intervals between them, could be the loophole Netanyahu will exploit, accusing the Palestinians of violating the agreement under any pretext—even if he has to invent an excuse. This relies on the expected support from the new Trump administration, which tends to support Zionism more than the Zionists themselves. Two parties threaten to withdraw from the government if the war is not resumed: Ben-Gvir's party, 'Jewish Power', and Smotrich's party, 'Religious Zionism'. The withdrawal of these parties could lead to the fall of the government, paving the way for Netanyahu's trial and removal from office, possibly resulting in his imprisonment.

To delay these parties' decision to leave the coalition, Netanyahu launched 'Operation Iron Wall' in the West Bank, intensifying the persecution, doubling the number of detentions, and increasing checkpoints from 680 to over 900. These barriers conduct detailed, humiliating, and lengthy searches, significantly hindering the movement of citizens.

The transition from the first to the second phase, and from the second to the third—which includes a permanent ceasefire, reconstruction, and a comprehensive withdrawal—faces serious challenges and obstacles. Netanyahu may exploit these difficulties to launch a new war in the Gaza Strip and achieve his objectives, both stated and undeclared, especially if it is confirmed that there are still prisoners alive whom he may consider expendable.

However, the most important factor in ensuring adherence to the ceasefire agreement is the position of the 'Zionist' Trump administration and the level of pressure it will exert on Netanyahu to comply with the subsequent steps of the agreement.

Among the factors that could lead the Israeli side and the international community to press for compliance with the agreement is the establishment of Palestinian national unity and the formation of a national consensus government. This government should assume the responsibilities of the next stage, moving away from factional quotas and being composed of influential national figures recognized for their integrity, honesty, and commitment to the goals of the Palestinian people. These goals include ending the occupation by all means, including legitimate resistance, and establishing an independent, viable society and a cohesive Palestinian state that represents the reality of all Palestinian people, wherever they may be. Belonging to Palestine is not limited to the inhabitants of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, but also includes Palestinians living in countries of asylum and the diaspora.

We are now in a testing phase for all parties: Will Israel uphold the agreement? Will the Trump administration support its implementation? Will the Palestinian leadership rise to the challenges and begin unifying all segments of society, paving the way for progress and recovery to confront the most dangerous racist colonialism in modern history?

* This is an opinion article, the responsibility of the author, and does not reflect the opinion of Brasil 247.