'Fumus Boni Iuris' stifles Cláudio Castro

Where there's smoke, there's fire. In Law, the figure of Fumus Boni Iuris (The Smoke of Good Law) tends to stifle the terrifying cunning of the governor of Rio de Janeiro, who can exterminate lives with the ease with which ants are trampled.

The potential removal from office of the governor of Rio de Janeiro, Cláudio Castro, for abuse of political and economic power in the 2022 elections would be an action like any other of its kind, but it has taken on a more significant character. Motivum Criminis (criminal motivation) after October 28th.

The process was restarted on November 4, 2025, after the governor was acquitted in 2024 by the TRE-RJ (Regional Electoral Court of Rio de Janeiro) by a narrow 4-3 vote, which allowed the case to be re-discussed in the TSE (Superior Electoral Court).

However, the trial was suspended shortly after the vote of the rapporteur, Minister Isabel Gallotti, who argued for ineligibility for eight years and the loss of office.

The entire press had long anticipated that Castro's conviction and loss of office were a foregone conclusion.

The high probability of Cláudio Castro's conviction has been discussed since May 2024, when the TRE-RJ (Regional Electoral Court of Rio de Janeiro) acquitted him and the Electoral Public Prosecutor's Office (MPE) immediately appealed to the TSE (Superior Electoral Court).

Minister Antonio Carlos Ferreira's request for a review delays the outcome, but it doesn't silence a suspicion that lingers in the air: could Castro have orchestrated the mega-operation Contenção, launched on October 28th, as a smokescreen to indirectly interfere with the verdict?

Herein lies the thesis sheltered within Procedural Law and known as Fumus Boni Iuris, a concept drawn from civil procedural law and adopted in electoral law, but also in criminal law.

The argument does not require conclusive proof, but minimal evidence of plausibility. Not to condemn, but to initiate an investigation.

In Castro's case, the timing This is the first and most glaring indication. Operation Containment resulted in more than 120 deaths of hypothetical suspects from Comando Vermelho in the Alemão and Penha complexes.

It was applauded by Bolsonaro supporters as a masterstroke against organized crime, but all experts say it was nothing more than a spectacle to entertain an audience terrified by organized crime, that is, the people of Rio de Janeiro.

However, the operation's launch exactly one week before the trial at the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) raises questions. The use of indiscriminate killing by police officers in an action that claimed the lives of four of them and injured many other law enforcement agents already demonstrates a complete lack of planning and an execution at any cost.

Why would Castro carry out such a high-risk operation with a timing So desperate? You don't need to be a genius to figure out the answer. Where there's smoke, there's fire.

If it was a calculated strategy to inflate Castro's image as the "governor of security," it worked perfectly. The governor began to be enthusiastically applauded wherever he went and saw a surge in followers on social media and positive ratings in polls.

But Castro's infamous stratagem did much more than that: it coerced the TSE. The reporter from Estadão Carolina Brígido's headline reads:

"TSE ministers see a difficult situation in Cláudio Castro's trial and anticipate defeat for the Court."

The reporter states that, according to members of the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), condemning Castro now "could sound like persecution of an important ally of Jair Bolsonaro who has electoral ambitions for 2026."

On the other hand, President Lula promises a federal investigation into this operation. If it's done properly, Castro is in trouble.

One of the lines of investigation should be – and must be – to determine the intention behind using this operation to produce the macabre results that were seen, in order to prevent the governor's conviction, even at the cost of the deaths of police officers, criminals, and even innocent people.

But how do you investigate something that seems impossible to prove? The Federal Police investigated much more in the Coup Plot. Let's see:

Documentary evidence

Official records, agendas, emails, or messages linking the operation's decision to the trial can be obtained through a court-authorized breach of telematics secrecy for Castro's WhatsApp communications with security secretaries, showing planning to coincide with November 4th, or minutes from internal meetings.

Testimonial evidence

Testimonies from those involved or eyewitnesses. Hearings from police officers, advisors, or ministers of the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) regarding pressure or discussions about the... timingPlea bargains from allies could be decisive.

Expert evidence

Technical analyses to demonstrate causal link or intent. Expert report on the planning of Operation Containment (e.g., why was it launched on October 28th, and not before?), or media analysis to measure the impact on public opinion prior to trial.

Circumstantial evidence

A set of facts that, when combined, suggest intent. Timing exact (operation one week before the trial), public statements by Castro praising the action as a "legacy," and polarized political reactions.

Recordings or interceptions

Audio/video recordings of conversations or events. Wiretaps authorized by the Supreme Federal Court (rapporteur Moraes, who is already investigating the operation from other angles), or videos of events in which Castro indirectly mentions the Superior Electoral Court.

What is unacceptable is that an operation which, in addition to the widespread killing of innocent and guilty people, also claimed the lives of four police officers and injured so many others, be accepted as "well executed." To admit that would be barbaric.