"The party was great, man"

The inauguration of President Lula, on a sunny Sunday before New Year's Day, was a huge national celebration. We will still need a considerable amount of time to "read" all the symbolism surrounding the events, from the extreme security of the process to the (little dog) "Resistance" climbing the ramp of the Planalto Palace. 

Lula's two speeches, contrary to what some media outlets claim, were cohesive and complementary. They began with a stern warning in the National Congress that there will be no amnesty for those who have committed crimes. All forms of crimes: against Democracy and the Constitution; against Civil Rights; against Public Administration and, fundamentally, crimes against Humanity, whether committed during the Covid-19 pandemic or specifically against the native Brazilian population. 

In his speech to the Presidential Palace, Lula da Silva reaffirmed his government's goals, going against those who demanded "electoral fraud." Thus, the fight against social inequalities, repeated 19 times, became the central axis of the new government, crowned by the summary phrase of the presidential address: "...hunger is the daughter of social inequalities." At the same time, he made a direct and immediate commitment to environmental preservation, the fight against deforestation and the poisoning of the Amazon's waters and soil, its rivers, and indigenous lands. Going further, he promised concrete action towards the global fight against hunger and climate change, seeking to redirect Brazil's foreign policy, returning to a civilized, supra-partisan path, inaugurated since San Tiago Dantas (1961), reaffirmed by Saraiva Guerreiro (1979), and firmly promoted by Celso Amorim (2003). 

This is the face, and the meaning, of the changes already underway in Brasília. Hail, Lula!

The inauguration, with all its symbolism, capable of combining the rigor of Itamaraty (the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs) with the popular and national vocation proposed by Janja da Silva, was also hailed as the end of a six-year period (Temer + Bolsonaro, 2016-2022) of regressive, elitist, and violent policies on the part of the public authorities. 

This is where I believe some warnings are necessary. As someone in the field of History, even if it's the History of the Present Time, I believe we must step back from the photograph to better appreciate the film. Unlike current journalism, with its immediate political focus, we are obliged to work with structural data, that which in the past builds the present and projects the future. Without such past/present "links," we could mistake appearances for the entirety of the phenomenon. 

In short, at the risk of spoiling the party atmosphere, it's worth stating that Bolsonarism didn't die on January 1st, 2023. Of course, it was hit hard. But it wasn't completely destroyed. We must remember that Bolsonaro received 49.10% of all votes against Lula da Silva's 50.90%, a difference of 1.8%! It was a very close, difficult, and unequal election. 

The defeated candidate extensively used public resources, ruined the country's finances, threatened public employees, and summoned employers to intimidate their workers. And he still lost. However, only just. After everything we know, from the Covid-19 Parliamentary Inquiry Commission with the macabre Manaus scandal, to the intentional killing of elderly people and the shady deals with the vaccine; everything exposed by the "Inquiries into Anti-Democratic Acts" conducted by the Supreme Federal Court, up to the attempt to exterminate native populations, nobody – nobody at all! – can say they didn't know about Bolsonaro's actions. The old excuse of "I didn't know," used in the Niurenberg trial, cannot be validated in the Brazilian case.

In the election of the defeated president, there was an expectation among the unwary, the self-serving, and the manipulative and self-proclaimed "Rasputins," especially in the military, to control the "big horse." That didn't happen. One by one, the sectors that supported Bolsonaro – businesspeople, journalists, the military, and a vast, frightened, and furious middle class – were run over by the defeated president, who imposed his own agenda, the agenda of Bolsonarism-fascism. The crude reactionary sentiment at the heart of Brazilian society – reaffirming its slave-owning structures – joined forces with religious fundamentalism and the rising neo-fascism in the world, and with the Bonapartist game à la Trump, to forge Bolsonarism. Fascism, Brazilian style. 

From all of this emerged a new political current in our political landscape: pocket-fascism. And fascism is not defeated in just one election, as the 1919 elections in Italy or the 1930 elections in Germany prove. Fascism is networked, persistent, resilient, with many faces. As long as the social conditions that allowed the formation of this vast far-right coalition, dominated by fascism, to launch a coup against democracy in 2016 and come to power in 2019 are not overcome, we will continue under the fascist threat. 

Numerous institutions in Brazilian society are already fascistized: the police, parts of the armed forces, a large portion of the judiciary ready for new experiences of "lawfare"A significant portion of the clinical system, such as that available for the sacrifice of the elderly and weak, as revealed by the Covid Parliamentary Inquiry, and even a good portion of the school system, such as the still-existing civic-military schools, are already all in the realm of fascism." 

In addition to everything else, the most important state in the federation has become an incubator for reactionaries and fascists, ready to return to power. Some of the politicians elected in 2022, such as the former vice-president, are competing with Bolsonaro himself for leadership of "bolso-fascism" (a term referring to Bolsonaro's left-wing fascism).

Whether we will have a Bolsonarism with or without Bolsonaro is a matter of adjectives. The central point is that fascism lives and pulsates in the hearts of a very large, far too large, segment of the population. Lula da Silva's government, beyond the "repeals," will have to be a government that keeps its supporters united, that dilutes the periphery of Bolsonarism-fascism – since its hard core is here to stay – and, above all, assumes its pedagogical mission of pointing out fascism as the fundamental enemy of the future of the Brazilian nation. 

We are condemned to either success or fascism. Surely there is "so much sea, so much sea, to navigate!"