election and tradition

By Laurindo Lalo Leal Filho 

(Published on the website) the earth is round)

On Monday morning, October 3rd, less than twelve hours before the closing of the vote count for the first round of the presidential elections, I received the following question: "What kind of country did the ballot boxes reveal?"

The question comes from Professor Ana Veloso, from the Federal University of Pernambuco, and presenter of the program "Fora da Curva" on Radio Paulo Freire, in Recife, in which I participate from São Paulo as an interviewee.

I reply: "The ballot boxes revealed a country that has joined the wave of institutionalization of the far right, which is on the rise around the world." And I add, "here represented by competitive political parties."

The response referenced what is happening in the United States, with Trumpism articulated to the right of the Republican party; in Italy, with the recent victory of the "Brothers of Italy," led by Giorgia Meloni; the significant vote received by Marine Le Pen of the National Rally in this year's elections in France; the victory of the xenophobic "Sweden Democrats" party in the parliamentary elections, making it the second largest political force in the country; in addition to previous gains of power by the right in Hungary and Poland, for example.

Of course, all of this is not mere coincidence. Objective socioeconomic conditions, identified from the financial crisis that began in 2007, with the devaluation of real estate in the US and Europe, spread throughout the world, leading to a global recession in 2009.

This crisis, due to its severity, can be compared to the one that occurred in the early 1930s. This allows us to draw a political parallel between that era and the beginning of the 21st century. Fascism and Nazism of the last century grew and led the world to the Second World War, in the wake of economic collapse. Political institutions proved incapable of confronting and taming the crisis of capital, opening space for movements of force, heralds of extremist solutions. The result was what it was. The greatest global catastrophe in human history, resulting in an estimated total death toll of between 70 and 85 million people, between 1939 and 1945.

Investments in the reconstruction of countries affected by the war and the creation of multilateral organizations, starting with the United Nations (UN), with the Universal Declaration of Human Rights approved by it, established parameters capable of guaranteeing a period where relative peace was anchored in the precarious balance between the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, and in the creation and strengthening of welfare states in the central countries of the capitalist world.

The turning point in this process occurred from the beginning of the 1980s, with the rise to power of Margaret Thatcher in the United Kingdom and Ronald Reagan in the United States, with their neoliberal policies, aimed at what became known as the "minimal state".

Actions that spread throughout the world and will culminate, in two decades, in the new crisis of capitalism. High inflation and unemployment, loss of real estate assets, bank failures shake the political structures built in the post-war period and, as in the 1930s, open space for the emergence of extremist groups, presenting the same salvationist proposals of other times.

In Brazil, the crisis did not occur simultaneously with that of the central capitalist countries. While the global economy suffered a 1,7% drop in 2009, here the decline was only 0,1%. Even so, the echoes of the global crisis penetrated the country through international media, symbolically anticipating the real crisis that would only arrive some time later.

It is within this context that the popular demonstrations of 2013 are situated, which had anti-politics as one of their central themes. In some demonstrations, political parties were prohibited from carrying their banners and posters. In an efficient interrelationship, the movements took to the streets and were stimulated by the media, which amplified them. In addition to summoning them and widely publicizing them, the media also provided the themes and characters to serve as targets for the demonstrators. The legal-media operation known as Lava Jato is the main example.

This opened up space for far-right opportunists. The history of this rise is well known: the coup against President Dilma Rousseff, the imprisonment and silencing of former President Lula, the 2018 election corrupted by the absence of the leading candidate in the polls, and the victory of the self-proclaimed representative of anti-politics.

All that remained for the consolidation of the project to institutionalize the far right in Brazil was the emergence of a competitive political party, like those existing in other countries mentioned above. That no longer exists. The PL, although encompassing currents not situated on the far right, from an electoral point of view becomes, from these elections onwards, its representative. Comparable to Arena, from the time of the dictatorship.

The data is irrefutable. The number of senators increased from two to 13, and could reach 15, depending on the outcome of the second round of state elections. If two senators running for governor in their states are not elected, remaining in the Senate will increase the number of senators.

A similar situation is occurring in the Chamber of Deputies. The PL party achieved the largest representation, growing from the current 79 deputies to 99 in the next legislature. In the case of state governments, although the PL only elected the governor of Rio de Janeiro in the first round, seven elected by other parties declared their support for the PL presidential candidate in the second round.

This finding indicates that the institutional strength of the far right extends beyond the PL party, being present in groups such as União Brasil and Republicanos, among others. It represents a set of alliances tied together by a clearly defined ideological force, which goes beyond the current transitional leadership and tends to remain within the Brazilian political-electoral spectrum.

The reason for this permanence is not solely due to endogenous and temporal factors. There is a philosophical basis to this process, explored extensively in the book. War for Eternity, the Return of Traditionalism and the Rise of the Populist Right,^[1] By Benjamin R. Teitelbaum, recently published by Editora da Unicamp. It's worth reading. In almost always colloquial language, the author reaches nearly 600 pages, breaking down the ideas, interpretations, and different applications of "traditionalism" in contemporary political situations. Brexit to present-day Brazil. There are accounts of several conversations with the American Steve Bannon, of contacts with the Russian Aleksandr Dugin and, as could not be missing, the account of a visit to the Brazilian Olavo de Carvalho.

After reading this, it becomes impossible to treat, for example, the current president's denialism regarding vaccines as mere madness or ignorance. From a personal point of view, it might even be that, but the book allows us to conclude that he is simply the voice of a societal vision that is spreading throughout the world and has deep roots.

The Brazil that emerged from the polls in the first round of this year's elections demonstrates, in practice, the deep roots of traditionalism in broad sectors of society and, at the same time, its institutional political flourishing.

The second round will determine whether or not this process continues. It will be contained within the current limits if its representative is defeated at the polls, while still remaining an important institutionalized political force. Otherwise, we will not only see the deepening of the destruction of democratic institutions, but also the implementation of a political-cultural regime based on traditionalism, putting an end to the secularization of the Brazilian state.

Nota

[1] TEITELBAUM, Benjamin R. War for Eternity, the Return of Traditionalism and the Rise of the Populist Right. Campinas, Editora Unicamp, 2020.