The 2014 election will follow the same script as the other three elections during the Lula era.

There has been no shortage of self-proclaimed prophets, as always, declaring that substantial changes are occurring in the political and economic landscape under which, above all else, next year's presidential election will take place. These predictions aim to herald a new situation that, this time, has the potential to finally remove the PT (Workers' Party) from power.

These predictions rely on a phenomenon concerning the national mentality that, let's face it, cannot be entirely denied: the proverbial lack of memory of Brazilians. Thus, we would be incapable of remembering that the bets being made today by those who want to regain power almost faithfully emulate those of the three previous elections.

Both on the right and left of the PT (Workers' Party), the same old refrains are resurfacing, attempting to "explain" why there has never been such a good chance of defeating the party as the one that will fall from the sky next year. The same old spiel about economic growth and inflation, from the right, and about surrendering to neoliberalism, from the left.

Starting with the right wing and its decade-long reliance on corruption scandals (only within the PT, of course) and criticism of the PT's macroeconomic policies. GDP growth and inflation, just as in the pre-election year of 2009, are being presented by the mainstream opposition press and the opposition itself as the main enemy of Dilma Rousseff's re-election.

Just as in 2009, the growth in employment levels and average income of Brazilians is being presented as nearing its limit, treated as unimportant compared to the importance of GDP growth and reducing the inflation rate by a mere one percentage point, so that it remains within the target for this year.

Regarding the "tiny GDP growth," the opposition-media discourse of 2010 is the same as in 2009, also a pre-election year like 2013. The opposition – or José Serra and Marina Silva – argued that the formal recession of that year (the Brazilian economy contracted by 0,3% in 2009) would be followed by mediocre growth in 2010, and the economy would defeat Lula's "puppet."

Inflation, despite remaining within the target range in 2009, was presented as rising. The alarmist bias of the news media wasn't entirely wrong. In fact, in 2010 inflation reached 5,91% (according to the IPCA), therefore outside the target range of 4,5% and close to the ceiling of 6,5%.

That's what should happen in 2013. We'll have inflation closer to the upper limit than to the center of the target, and next year, it's expected that there will be a repeat of the inflation rate. In other words: nothing very different from 2010.

Also in terms of growth, no great difference is foreseen between 2014 and 2010. We may not grow 7,5% as in 2014, but we are managing to have a better pre-election year than the one preceding 2010. In 2009 the economy contracted by 0,3% and this year it should grow by 2 to 2,5 percent. In other words: we will enter 2014 growing much more than we entered 2010.

As we can see, the opposition to the PT from the right (media, PSDB, DEM and, now, PSB, with the affiliation of the ultraconservative Marina Silva) continues to fail to see the reason why the PT has remained in power since winning the 2002 presidential election. And the same happens with the opposition from the left, which is limited to PSOL, PSTU and PCO.

All these parties, both to the right and to the left of the PT (Workers' Party), emulate the discourse of the mainstream media and disregard the achievements the country has made over the last ten years. They disregard the strong employment levels, the rising average income, the reduction of poverty and extreme poverty, and Brazil's growing importance on the international stage.

A PSOL theorist recently wrote that the PT government is the same as the PSDB government and that next year, whoever has the best marketing strategy and the most money will win the election. I disagree, because in 2010 the PSDB had the best marketing campaign of all, with the blatant support of the gigantic Brazilian media machine. And it had as much money as the PT.

This mentality of the more radical left is even worse than that of the conservative media and opposition, because it assumes that the Brazilian people are composed of a vast majority of easily manipulated, feeble-minded individuals who can be convinced that the country is improving when, in fact, it remains the same.

Is the PT (Workers' Party) the same as the PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) when it only allows auctions for oil exploration in pre-salt fields via concessions in areas where no oil has been discovered, but established a profit-sharing system for pre-salt areas where oil is already known to exist?

In 2010, the PSDB party, through its candidate José Serra, promised owners of multinational oil companies that, if it won the presidential election, it would hand over even the pre-salt fields, where oil was already known to exist, under a concession regime. In other words: the multinationals would arrive there, collect the oil that Petrobras had discovered, and then celebrate.

Under Lula and Dilma, oil companies will only be able to explore pre-salt fields and take the lion's share of the extraction if those fields are areas where deposits have not yet been located, even though it is likely that they exist.

Is the PT (Workers' Party) the same as the PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) when it drastically reduces (by up to 30%) the price of electricity? Yes, Dilma did this because the previous price could no longer be charged as it included amortization of the cost of constructing hydroelectric plants, and that cost had already been paid long ago. The PSDB harshly criticized and even tried to sabotage the measure.

Is the PT (Workers' Party) the same as the PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) when it creates a quota policy for Black people in universities, which the opposition and the media furiously combat, but which will even allow us to start seeing Black doctors in the country?

Is the PT (Workers' Party) the same as the PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) when it reduces interest rates by having public banks lead the rate cuts? Of course not. Dilma attracted the ire of the banking sector, which even got the owner of Itaú to politically campaign in the opposition, alongside Marina Silva.

Is the PT (Workers' Party) the same as the PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) in creating the Mais Médicos (More Doctors) program, which attracted the ire of the health plan elite? Is it the PT that Brazilian doctors who call black foreign doctors slaves are joining? No, it's the PSDB and the DEM (Democrats).

I could spend hours listing the differences between the PT and the PSDB. And, as for the PSB, the entry of Marina – the darling of the financial markets – into the party has leveled it with the PSDB.

Last Wednesday, it was announced that more than 200 formal jobs were created in September. These are jobs with signed contracts and increasingly better salaries, because the more jobs that are created, the more the balance between supply and demand is disrupted, and with fewer unemployed people, salaries rise.

Only those who did not live in the country until 2003, or who are willing to lie shamelessly, are capable of ignoring what job creation and the improvement of wages and income for Brazilians in general mean, while the economy remains almost impassive in the face of the international crisis, while preparing to surprise with its GDP in 2014, as it did in 2010.

The only difference between 2014 and 2010, therefore, is not in the circumstances of the situation, but in those of the opposition. Unlike 2010, this time the opposition will not have a "strong" name like José Serra. Aécio, Marina, and Eduardo Campos are struggling.

A Vox Populi poll released this week shows, in fact, that even in the field of electoral polls, 2014 will be just like 2010. The poll in question showed that in recent weeks only Dilma has gained ground, while Aécio, Marina, and Eduardo Campos have lost voting intentions. Thus, the VP poll contradicted the latest Datafolha poll, which showed everyone gaining ground.

Will the Movement of the Media-less once again have to petition the Electoral Attorney General's Office to initiate an investigation into the polls by the Federal Police, as it did in 2010? Incidentally, it's worth remembering that the measure, in that year, had a very positive effect on the polls, which stopped competing with each other soon after the investigation was opened.