Two points: 1. the unbelievable 11-point loss by Lula's government; 2. Trump's crazy policies.

The far right is not a coincidence. It is historical and has not died out; it has remained alive even after the military defeat in World War II.

During the Cold War, the West was complicit in extremist ideology, led by England and the USA. They did not wage a decisive fight against these exotic ideologies.

Submission or war: that is the international dilemma Trump wants to use to terrorize the world. He terrorizes to gauge the reaction, but how to distinguish a bluff from a warning? He uses both. Perhaps psychology can help identify the characteristics of a bluff and those of a warning.

He's betting high; you have to pay to see if it's a bluff, otherwise, they submit.

The US thrives on deceitful propaganda. It has poverty, racism, income inequality, obscene numbers of school shootings, xenophobia, the rise of neo-Nazi cells, a fentanyl crisis (new waves of overdoses have been steadily increasing since 2023), and exorbitant housing costs…

What did the Axis powers—Germany, Italy, and Japan—have in common in World War II? The policy of annexation. Germany planned to annex any territories with ethnic Germans and Germanic peoples, in order to create a Greater Germanic and Aryan Reich (empire). Japan, in 1910, invaded Korea and imposed a regime of absolute terror on the country, forcing a Japan-Korea Treaty that placed Korea in the subservient position of a protectorate. Italy, under a fascist regime, sought to expand its territory to restore the "glory of the Roman Empire" and strengthen its strategic position in the Mediterranean; the annexations of Ethiopia and Albania are a clear example of this.

Currently, Trump's foreign policy has similar characteristics. He has already promised to annex Greenland and constantly talks about his interest in annexing Canada, supports Israel's expansionist policy in the Middle East, and will reach an agreement with Russia for the annexation of part of Ukraine (I won't go into the merits of that here).

Elon Musk, the all-powerful figure in the US government, is an enemy of democracy, an avowed Nazi in his actions and speeches, and has been openly a militant ideologue in almost the entire world for a new order: that of the autocracy of tech billionaires, through which they intend to achieve the subjugation of states and leaders. 

Trump's protectionist policy is a step backward, something that has already been experienced. Global production was lower then; with globalization, there was a significant growth boost. For example, the world GDP in 1988 was US$19,55 trillion, while in 2023 it was US$105,4 trillion, demonstrating an increase of 439%, allowing other countries to leverage their growth and gradually challenging unilateralism, especially with the overwhelming growth of China under an experimental system of socialism, in which the State holds the power to plan and control the market economy, avoiding its irrationality and cyclical crises, because it has a centralized democratic political structure.

The United States is a terrorist country: they block the assets of others, loot, steal even aircraft from another country (Venezuela), and respect no international law, no civilized rule. Trump practices the politics of the Wild West, of the strongest gunslinger in the midday sun.

Faced with the choice between accepting multilateralism, the US may opt for war, on the premise that, however bad the outcome, they will survive as one of the poles.

The dollar is worthless! The problem is that the BRICS, under Brazil's presidency, are too quiet. If the BRICS don't move forward with using other forms of trade and succumb to the dollar's dominance, we'll spend four long years listening to Trump's delusional and dystopian speeches, unless there's resistance from American and international society, because he'll have no reason to hold back his own control.

Trump is the raw archetype of the Fourth Reich.

Brazil is a great country, with immense potential, a large population, and natural resources, but it has a submissive bourgeoisie and a business class intertwined with sterile financial capital that sucks but does not produce. The economy fills the belly, but does not cultivate awareness. 

It is forbidden to grow according to the dictates of the Central Bank and conservative business leaders, as they fear an economy with full employment and a large, skilled, and empowered working class.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Itamaraty) makes the policy, the economic team handles the reciprocal tariffs in relation to the protectionist measures of the dictator of the Empire. And Lula reserves his time to defend Brazil and the BRICS.

Internally in Brazil, the left is asking itself: should I support a center-right government? The right is asking itself: should I support a Workers' Party government?

The government has no identity, no brand. And no communication. The current minister is the president's marketing advisor, not the communications minister. To date, he has not implemented any systematic communication of information or political training. Gleisi continues to be the one acting as the agent of tit-for-tat.

Brazil has become so right-wing and devoid of dissenting opinions that it's frightening. Has class struggle been abolished?

The Brazilian digital landscape is living proof of how fake news is one of the most effective political tools today, because, under the current government, we have achieved the lowest unemployment rate in history, the lowest inflation since the Real Plan, a minimum wage above inflation, medicines being distributed free of charge to the population, savings of almost 10 reais for students graduating from high school, GDP with excellent growth, and, even with so many advances, Lula's popular approval rating has fallen 11 points in the latest polls.

In two months, a drop of 11 points in government approval is a phenomenon worthy of study by research experts, because for political analysts and activists it smells like Folha, an old newspaper of the far-right, agitators and coup plotters against democracy.

An approval rating of 24% means that Lula's popularity has reached a solid level; anything lower than that could be irrecoverable.

However, the yellow light comes on.

The government and its leaders, almost unanimously, are pointing to communication as the cause of the decline in public support for the government. Is it the form or the content that is lacking?

To communicate is to communicate something; what is there to be transmitted? What causes do the people and the government have in common that they should champion together?

What goals does the government have this year so that the people can join the march to achieve them?

The policy of three meals a day no longer resonates with the population, especially with inflation. People need to imagine a different future. To do that, they need to dream and hope. 

What is there to dream about? If there is no strategic plan outlining the kind of Brazil that democratic forces want to build and what the annual goals are to achieve the country's macro-level objective for the coming decades.

Society doesn't mobilize itself; it needs incentives through propaganda, agitation, in short, promotion, because the economy fills bellies but doesn't form consciences.

Despite the positive economic figures, what prevails is the scaremongering from the media, the market, and the central bank.

Faced with the imperialist policies of the US, Brazil needs patriotic unity.

The problem is that the far-right is fundamentalist, a vassal of the empire, not to mention that within our own center-right government there are also false nationalists, lackeys of the Americans. Without pressure from the left, the government will be increasingly hijacked by the right.

After the destruction of wars, reconstruction. Who does it and who profits? Capital! It's disaster capitalism, which the evil empire and dictator Trump are obsessively implementing. How long will we have to watch?

Lula remains very lucid and energetic, but surrounded from the outside and undermined from within. Reform needs to come from the left.

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Confronting Trumpism and Bolsonaroism is a Herculean challenge that depends not only on the government to overcome, but on the whole of society.

The anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist banner needs to be raised again throughout the world, as it was in 1968.

History doesn't go back, but it inspires.

The left, both in name and in commitment to socialism, is asleep.