Democracy in tatters: why did Toffoli back down?

What is behind Toffoli's retreat, removing from the agenda the vote on the legality of imprisonment after conviction in the second instance? The date had been set since last year.

There are several hypotheses for the decision.

The president of the Supreme Federal Court may have backed down because the position that imprisonment can only occur after a final and unappealable judgment would be defeated. It would be a defensive maneuver, an attempt to buy time and strengthen the institution so that it can adopt that position later on.

Several movements corroborate this interpretation. What happened on April 3rd was serious. The Brazilian Bar Association (OAB), the National Conference of Brazilian Bishops (CNBB), the National Union of Students (UNE), the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), and other entities went to the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to deliver a manifesto defending...the STF! They weren't there to defend positions, they were there to defend the institution. Why does it need to be defended? Is the Supreme Court threatened? Who is threatening it?

Another hypothesis is that Toffoli backed down in search of a negotiated solution, pushing the imprisonment to the third instance, after judgment by the STJ (Superior Court of Justice). The postponement would be a maneuver to allow the STJ to judge and convict Lula before the STF (Supreme Federal Court) decision, removing the former president from the reach of the effects of this review.

Following this line of reasoning, it could be that a house arrest for Lula is being negotiated with the Superior Court of Justice (STJ). The Lava Jato operation would suffer a "partial defeat," with imprisonment only permitted after the third instance ruling. And Lula would be sent to a "partial prison."

The third hypothesis is that Toffoli postponed it because he was going to win the vote. Does that make sense?

A victory for the democratic rule of law would free Lula from prison. It would be a defeat for the "Torquemadas." If victory was likely, what forces were able to force a retreat?

High-ranking military officers occupy eight ministries. And they are all over the Esplanade. Never before, not even during the Dictatorship, have the military had so much power. While the self-proclaimed left dances merrily to the sound of "Bonde do Tigrão," debating whether "tchuchuca" is a sexist term or not, a real and dangerous game is being set up.

At the Army Command handover ceremony, General Villas Bôas said that Brazil was experiencing a new moment thanks to two men: Jair Bolsonaro and Sérgio Moro. Who will be the next to receive the highest honor from the Brazilian army? Deltan Dallagnol.

At the start of the Captain's campaign, the military expressed concern that the institution's image should not be associated with that of the candidate. Today, they seem intoxicated by power.

In his game, Bolsonaro continues to treat parliament with disdain. Public signs of rapprochement are merely part of a "fake" ritual. Within the military core of the Planalto Palace, politicians are treated like criminals.

Guedes silenced the CCJ plenary with a threatening irony. He repeated four times before the silent deputies: “Do you think the military is contributing little to the pension reform? Why don't you change? Are you afraid? Are you afraid?”

Democracy in Brazil is in tatters. Pessimists say we've already reached 64; the only question is whether we'll make it to 68.

There are various forms of closure. With intelligence forces from the state apparatus fed by the NSA, anti-national sectors of the state bureaucracy engaged, and a strong armed wing, the "corporals and soldiers" can be spared any more extravagant display.

Why did Toffoli back down? What pressures acted upon him? Why are they so afraid of Lula's release? Why is it necessary to maintain the rules of a state of exception?

GDP is expected to grow by a maximum of 1% this year, deepening unemployment and social drama. It will be necessary to find someone to blame, or "one person to blame," for the disaster. Democracy, unfortunately, seems to be the first in line.