Cunha will resign.

It's not easy to give up the mansion of the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies and the perks estimated at over 500 reais per month, as well as the power inherent in the position, but if Eduardo Cunha wants to preserve his mandate, his freedom of movement, and his fortune, he will have to resign.

It's a concession he had to make within an agreement brokered by Temer, who can't govern with the mess that the Chamber has become and who will be the main victim if Cunha is impeached and, consequently, arrested in Operation Lava Jato and becomes a cooperating witness.

Given his importance in the political arena, where he is a key player, only a robust accusation, implicating other key players, can save him from the humiliation of being behind bars, with all the discomfort that entails.

There is no doubt that Temer is more concerned with the vote on Cunha in the Chamber of Deputies than with the impeachment vote in the Senate, since the content of his likely testimony could lead to the loss of ministers, his governability, and even the premature end of his government.

But resignation alone would not be enough for Temer to put Eliseu Padilha in the race to secure votes for Cunha.

He also had to give up choosing his successor, a condition demanded by the PSDB to continue supporting the Temer government and help him preserve Cunha's mandate.

According to this scenario, the PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) has everything it needs to elect the next Speaker of the House, in partnership with the PT (Workers' Party), ousting Cunha's group from power. In the current situation, the Speaker of the House is first in line to succeed Temer, who has no vice-president. Whatever happens to him, the PSDB could reach the long-awaited presidency of the Republic.

Keeping Cunha away from Curitiba is Temer's main objective at the moment. Not only out of gratitude, since Cunha was essential in bringing him to power, but also out of fear of what might happen.

However, if Temer is in Cunha's hands, Cunha is also in Temer's hands.

Neither the Temer government can withstand a plea bargain from Cunha, nor can Cunha avoid prison if Temer doesn't work for him, making available to the members of parliament everything the government machinery can offer to discourage them from destroying Cunha.

To begin with, Cunha has on his side those "151 deputies" whom he could denounce. Of course, to save themselves, they first need to save Cunha.

In addition to them, however, there are (if that's the correct number) 362 votes in dispute, 257 of which are enough to impeach Cunha. Convincing 106 deputies to support Cunha is Padilha's (almost impossible) mission, because public opinion will not forgive them if it discovers who they are.

Nothing indicates that, if he is not impeached, Cunha will receive amnesty from the Supreme Court, which removed him from the presidency and his mandate indefinitely. However, even if he remains sidelined, like a lame duck, at home, he will not run the risk of being arrested until 2018, since the Supreme Court does not order the arrest of parliamentarians except in cases of flagrant offenses, and Cunha's crimes, as far as is known, are in the distant past.

Thus, by holding out until the next election, he can run again and, thanks to his efficient electoral machine (and the seemingly controlled votes he has in the Baixada Fluminense and among the evangelical electorate), he can be re-elected and thus remain protected by the privileged jurisdiction of the Supreme Federal Court, where cases tend to drag on indefinitely.

Furthermore, Cunha has the advantage that, by resigning and retreating to his gilded cave, he escapes the media spotlight, allowing him to enjoy a healthy near-anonymity, which facilitates behind-the-scenes negotiations.

It is unknown whether his resignation will be enough to quell the hatred that Brazilians harbor towards him, but he has no other choice.

Either resign now or pack your bags for Curitiba.