National situation: no risk of dying of boredom

The Bolsonaro government is trying to "scrape the bottom of the barrel" at Petrobras, in the final stretch of a disastrous administration. The company's management wants to make an early dividend payment of R$ 40 billion to shareholders, related to the results of the third quarter of this year. Since last year, the state-owned company has been paying this dividend to shareholders in advance. The transition team of the future government is trying to prevent the payment of these dividends from being approved by the Board of Directors, since it represents an advance on company funds based on future results.

As demonstrated by the Association of Petrobras Engineers (AEPET), the company's management has been using debt as an excuse to sell profitable and strategic assets. However, in the third quarter of this year, Petrobras' net debt increased by US$13 billion, and all the profit was distributed to shareholders. In other words, they are selling assets, but the debt continues to increase. The global standard for dividend distribution is a maximum of 25% of net profit. Instead of paying off the debt or making strategic investments, they hand over the money to veritable vampires, usually residing abroad, mainly in the USA. And the net profits go into the pockets of speculators. It's a formula tailor-made for bankrupting the company. 

     The new government will find a very complex international situation and a national economy in a state of calamity. Freedom is not something formal; it must be substantiated in tangible elements, such as employment, decent wages, and quality public health and education. Therefore, the effort being made by the future government's team to implement a real increase in the minimum wage as early as January 2023 is fundamental. The Budget Guidelines Law, submitted by the Bolsonaro government, does not foresee a real increase in the minimum wage. 

     The multiplier effect of the minimum wage on income is well known, as millions of people receive only the minimum wage in both the formal and informal economies. Furthermore, more than 60% of pensions and retirement benefits under the general social security system are at the minimum wage level. In addition, the majority of workers in Brazil earn up to three minimum wages. When the national minimum wage increases, it ends up pushing at least the base of the pyramid upwards. 

     In Santa Catarina, we observed this effect through the minimum wage campaign, which is now in its thirty-third year. If the minimum wage sees a real increase, the same trend is likely to occur with state minimum wages, even though it is a specific campaign with its own actions and which considers a series of other elements of the general context in the process. 

     The new government's priority should be actions against hunger and poverty. Given its history, the future president should wage a vigorous fight against hunger. In 12 years, at the end of Dilma's first term in 2014, Brazil had been removed from the UN's hunger map, one of the country's most important achievements, both politically and humanly. With the 2016 coup, Brazil quickly returned to the infamous map. The situation is now more serious. More than half of the Brazilian population is food insecure, and 33 million are experiencing hunger. 

     Brazil is the world's third-largest food producer and the leading producer of animal protein, possessing advanced technology and vast arable land. Furthermore, it exports food worldwide. Therefore, the country has a duty to guarantee decent and regular food security for the entire population, an objective that should be integrated into a comprehensive set of public policies (employment, credit for family farmers, supply systems, control of food inflation, etc.).

     Another issue that should be prioritized is household debt. According to information from the National Confederation of Commerce, the number of indebted families reached 79,3% of all households in the country, a record in the historical series that the organization compiles. The high level of household debt is aggravated by the fact that Brazil has some of the highest real interest rates on the planet. Citizens or families who become indebted can no longer escape the financial trap. 

     It is crucial to reinstate the housing program, formerly known as Minha Casa Minha Vida (My House, My Life), which was destroyed by the 2016 coup, especially under Bolsonaro. The Brazilian housing deficit is enormous (5,9 million homes in 2019). Since 2020, there has been an extreme reduction in resources for housing programs. The average spending on housing programs, especially Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV), from 2009 to 2019, was R$ 11,3 billion per year. 

     In 2021, the budget for the successor to the "Casa Verde Amarela" program, "Minha Casa Minha Vida," was R$ 27 million. A large-scale housing project, in addition to beginning to solve a structural problem in Brazil – the housing deficit – would generate jobs quickly, especially at the base of the wage pyramid. Besides the sector being extremely agile in generating jobs and taxes, the production chain is largely nationalized, which would generate a significant positive effect on the Brazilian economy. 

     Beyond the priority of economic and social issues, the future government has room to develop policies of sovereignty and international relations. It is possible to revive the idea of ​​a sovereign Brazil that treats the richest and most powerful countries as equals, while simultaneously cooperating with the development of poorer countries through investments and technology transfer, etc. It is possible, starting in January, to once again emphasize policies of integration in South America, Latin America, and the Caribbean, and to strengthen Mercosur. The articulation of the BRICS should also be strongly resumed. This will, in principle, put us on a collision course with the American empire, which has chosen China and Russia as its main enemies, as we can observe from NATO's actions in Ukraine. 

     Paulo Guedes and his team have worked tirelessly to definitively transform the country exclusively into a provider of commodities and raw materials for rich nations. This type of international relationship is not in Brazil's interest. It is fundamental to discuss the reindustrialization of the country. Brazil is still the most industrialized country in Latin America, but for decades industry has been losing importance in the GDP, a trend that was greatly accelerated under the Bolsonaro administration. Industrial development must be resumed with an appropriate exchange rate, industrial policy, and strengthening of the BNDES (Brazilian Development Bank) to finance production. Investment in technology to export high value-added products is also fundamental, a policy completely disregarded by the current government. 

     With the world in shambles, the new Brazilian government must increase its influence in the so-called Global South, especially in partnership with China and Russia, which are being directly threatened by the aggressive policies of US imperialism. The new government must not only restore Brazil's leading role in the fight against the climate crisis, improving the protection of biomes as a whole, but must also reduce the risk of handing over the Amazon rainforest to imperialist interests, a very real risk under the Bolsonaro government. To achieve this, it is fundamental to enable the sustainable development of the communities living in the Amazon region. Nearly 30 million Brazilians live in the Amazon biome, which comprises half of Brazilian territory.  

      The implementation of these measures – and many other essential ones – will have to be carried out under very adverse conditions, both nationally and internationally. Their realization depends on a shift in the balance of power, and not just on technical competence. This is especially true given an international crisis, which is expected to worsen next year, and the "cursed legacy" of the Bolsonaro government. Furthermore, the implementation of these measures implies the resumption of the role that was taken away from the Brazilian state, particularly after the coup, as a driver of national growth and development. 

     The government that takes office in January will only be able to overcome the immense challenges on the horizon with the growing support of the majority of the population. Therefore, its first economic measures must address the core needs of the people, especially the poorest. The truth is, we won't die of boredom in the coming years.