The process of removing Bolsonaro from office has begun.
"It is very likely that Bolsonaro will lose the battle in the Supreme Court; there's not much he can do to interfere there, but he is already preparing for the battle in Congress, attracting the centrist forces to his side in exchange for positions, which will be transformed into votes when necessary," writes Alex Solnik of Journalists for Democracy.
By Alex Solnik, from Journalists for Democracy
By requesting the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to investigate former minister Sérgio Moro's statements regarding unconstitutional conversations and actions by then-President Bolsonaro, the Attorney General, Augusto Aras, has effectively initiated the process that could remove the President from office.
The ball is in Minister Celso de Mello's court.
He has three options: either he reports that the president must be investigated for a common crime or for a crime of responsibility, or that he does not need to be investigated.
The last option is the least feasible. Given the repercussions of the former minister's devastating words, it is most likely that he will choose between a common crime and a crime of responsibility, and it is clear that the full court will have to decide the matter.
Both options will require the approval of the National Congress, the arena for all political battles.
Therefore, it is the Supreme Federal Court (STF) that will decide whether the offense can be classified as a common crime or a crime of responsibility, but in either case, it is the members of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate who authorize the opening of the proceedings.
It is very likely that Bolsonaro will lose the battle in the Supreme Court; there's not much he can do to interfere there. However, he is already preparing for the battle in Congress, attracting the forces of the center to his side in exchange for positions, which will be transformed into votes when necessary.
The current pandemic situation, incredibly enough, favors Bolsonaro, because while everyone is confined to their homes, the pressure on the centrist deputies, who will be the deciding factor in the vote, will not be as strong as it would be with the people in the streets.
The irony is that Bolsonaro wants to end the lockdown as soon as possible, while his opponents advocate for "staying at home."
In any case, the die is cast.
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* This is an opinion article, the responsibility of the author, and does not reflect the opinion of Brasil 247.