Ciro has no life of his own.

The least risky prediction that can be made about the presidential election on October 7th, from today's perspective, is that Ciro Gomes will not advance to the second round.

This will only happen if the PT doesn't have a candidate (which is unlikely) or if the PT supports Ciro (even more unlikely).

That's what the research shows.

In simulations where Lula is not a candidate, Ciro reaches the leading group, he is the one who benefits the most from his absence, but when Lula is present, Ciro falls sharply in the polls. Lula's and Ciro's electorates are the same. And the electorate only chooses Ciro when they cannot choose Lula.

There's not room for two left-wing candidates in the second round. And that spot is already occupied, a priori, either by Lula, for sure, if he doesn't get a red card, or possibly by whomever he indicates. The campaign hasn't even started yet. The free airtime allotted to the Workers' Party (PT) on TV is much greater than Ciro's. It wouldn't be surprising if his numbers fall even further.

Ciro won't make it to the second round because he depends on the decisions of the PT (Workers' Party) and especially on Lula's decisions. He doesn't have a life of his own.

His last hope is an alliance with the PSB, but it's not easy. Ciro is willing to support the reelection of Governor Paulo Câmara in Pernambuco, and the feeling is mutual.

But the package also includes support for Márcio França in São Paulo, which is of no interest to Ciro, since França's presidential candidate is Alckmin, not him.

There is a risk that the PDT will enter the first round without any allies.

Divided between supporters of Ciro Gomes, supporters of Lula, and even those seeking their own candidate, the most prudent course of action, to avoid splits, would be for the PSB to remain neutral. Governors are free to form regional alliances with any party and campaign that follows.

The seat reserved for the right will be decided between Bolsonaro and Alckmin.

Although the former governor of São Paulo doesn't yet inspire enthusiasm, if he manages to forge a major alliance – PSDB, MDB, PP, DEM, and PR – he will become competitive.

Marina, who is neither left nor right, has neither the space nor the allies to face a head-to-head contest.