5G mobile phones: national sovereignty diminished.

Published in Marcelo Auler's Blog

There are many people in Brazil who still believe that the country ceased to be a colony on September 07, 1822. (This is based on an interview given to the newspaper.) The GlobeThe statement made on July 29th by the United States Ambassador to Brasília, Todd Chapman, shows exactly the opposite. The country remains subservient, but to a different colonizer.

Chapman dedicated an entire page of the Rio de Janeiro morning newspaper to blackmailing the country. With no regard for Brazilian sovereignty, he threatened: “There will be consequences for Brazil if the country allows Huawei to supply equipment for the 5G network.” It had been a long time since the United States had interfered in Brazil's internal affairs in such an explicit and crude manner.

From the height of his arrogance, the Ambassador spared no bravado. He asserted that if the Chinese were to participate in the supply of 5G technology, American companies would leave Brazil, confident that he was providing the necessary elements for his colleague Ernesto Araújo, the Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs, to begin a crackdown on the Chinese conglomerate. This is similar to what has already happened in Canada, England, France, Portugal, and, obviously, the United States.

Five days before Chapman's interview, President Donald Trump ordered the expulsion of 72 employees from the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas. He accused them of industrial espionage. As always happens in these episodes, no concrete evidence was presented against the accused. Trump produced yet another of his endless "factoids," all with the purpose of boosting his faltering election campaign next November.

Groundhogs

Suffocated by so many bizarre political events and a devastating health crisis that has claimed nearly 100 lives so far, Brazilians haven't been able to pay much attention to the ambassador's blunders. This is partly because the issue is complex, involving foreign trade, the supply of cutting-edge technology, telecommunications, economic recovery, and so on.

What's behind this argument is no small matter. The four major mobile phone operators in Brazil – Oi, Claro, Vivo, and Tim – are estimating investments of around US$33,1 billion over three years, solely for expanding their fiber optic network and installing new equipment that will guarantee the transmission of data, audio, and images at very high speeds.

The figure in question is eye-catching for the Chinese company Huawei, the Finnish company Nokia, and the Swedish company Ericsson. They are the holders of the most advanced technologies for operating the fifth generation of mobile phones in the world. The pilgrimage of executives from these companies to Brasília began at the end of last year. In November, one of those who went to the Palácio do Planalto (Presidential Palace) to show his intentions to Bolsonaro was Yao Wei, the head of Huawei.

It's important to remember that, long before Ambassador Chapman's threats, the Chinese had already been testing their technology with the operator Oi, in the city of Búzios, on the northern coast of Rio de Janeiro, and with Tim, in Florianópolis. The process is much more advanced than one might imagine.

The subservience with which Bolsonaro and his foreign minister have been treating the current US government is undoubtedly a complicating factor in this story. Since 2016, when Senator José Serra (PSDB-SP) took over the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the government of coup leader Michel Temer, the pragmatism of Brazilian foreign policy has been sidelined. National interest has ceased to prevail. What matters now are the idiosyncrasies of those perched in the Planalto Palace.

Examples from the past

Brazilians know very well where these things lead when exacerbated nationalism takes the place of rationality. In the 70s, the reigning military dictatorship tried to impose a national standard for analog color television broadcasts, something called "PAL-M." It led to what it led to. We almost became isolated in the global market for audiovisual content. Brazil narrowly avoided being isolated.

Soon after, the same military tried to force down the throats of Brazilians the infamous market reserve law for the development and manufacture of personal computers – PCs – and their respective software. As always, technological advancement moved faster than the military's wishes, and the initiative failed miserably.

In 2007, when Brazil opted for the Japanese digital television transmission standard – ISDB, Integrated Services Digital Broadcasting Terrestrial – common sense prevailed. The most robust technology was chosen to meet the demands of a nation of continental size and completely addicted to television. Over time, ISDB proved its efficiency and ended up being the most widely used in the world.

Driving out the Chinese 5G giant, as US President Donald Trump and the Prime Ministers of Canada, Justin Trudeau, and England, Boris Johnson, did, and as the mob of Olavo de Carvalho followers surrounding Bolsonaro desire, is not as simple as it seems.

Huawei is not a small, back-alley company. It has 180 employees spread across 170 different nations. Last year, its revenue was US$121,1 billion, a 19,1% increase compared to 2018. Net profit reached US$8,8 billion. More than 15 scientists work in its Research and Development laboratories. This positions it as a leader in the global Information and Communication Technology (ICT) market.

Therefore, exchanging blows with a company based in Shenzhen, in the Pearl River Delta, is a serious matter for big players. Not to mention that it operates in this technology market backed by the weight of China, currently the second largest economy in the world.

As has been widely discussed in prose and verse, the Chinese are Brazil's main trading partner. According to Fazcomex, a consulting firm specializing in foreign trade, last year Brazil sold US$62,8 billion to China and bought US$35,2 billion. This left a positive trade balance between the two countries of US$27,6 billion for Brazil.

The same advisory service verified that in 2019, Ambassador Chapman's country bought US$29,5 billion worth of goods from Brazil and sold US$30 billion worth. The US$500 million deficit favored the Americans.

Insomnia

No one is naive enough to think that relations between nations are based solely on trade balance figures. There's a very heavy geopolitical game behind it all. Not to mention the equally intricate technological issues. For example, Huawei has been supplying equipment for 3G and 4G transmissions to Brazilian telephone companies for decades. In the event of a boycott against the Chinese, what happens? Does everything shut down and they leave? And what do the users of these phones do?

The questions above have been keeping the most sensible technicians at the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), as well as the Ministries of Economy and Communications, awake at night. Today, according to figures from the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), there are 260 million active mobile phone devices in Brazil. That's right: there are more cell phones than people living in this country.

Experts know that a telecommunications "blackout," due to a tantrum by some authority figure, could produce a disaster for the Brazilian economy greater than the economic tragedy caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Even the ultraliberal and pro-American Economy Minister, Paulo Guedes, has already been whispering in the ear of "Captain Corona" (a nickname given by the columnist of...). The Globe"Bernardo Mello Franco, to the Brazilian head of state, whose post went viral worldwide thanks to the British newspaper." Financial Times), a call for caution regarding matters related to 5G.

Last October, Bolsonaro met with President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. On that occasion, they signed several agreements for commercial and technological cooperation. It remains to be seen whether the Brazilian president will fulfill the agreements he signed. When it comes to showing subservience to his boss Donald Trump, Bolsonaro tends to be unpredictable and, at times, embarrassing.

"Chapeiro" (grill cook) with a big mouth

It should also be taken into account that the captain's adult sons, identified by a numerical sequence from 1 to 3, tend to talk a lot. Last March, Zero Three, federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PSL-SP), vilely insulted the Chinese. He accused them of intentionally spreading the coronavirus.

The reaction from the Chinese Embassy in Brasilia was in the same vein: “Unfortunately, you are a person without international vision or common sense, without knowledge of China or the world. We advise you not to rush into being the spokesperson for the US in Brazil, lest you stumble badly.”

The Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, was forced to intervene to calm things down. He apologized for the childish outbursts of "Zero Three" (referring to Maia's son, likely a political figure). Besides presiding over the Foreign Relations Committee of that parliament, the troublemaker was also considered by his father to be a potential candidate for the position of Brazilian ambassador to Washington.

Eduardo Bolsonaro's resume boasts the remarkable achievement of having worked, 14 years ago, at the "Popeyes" fast-food chain in Fairfax, Virginia, as a "grill cook," frying hamburgers. A kind soul managed to convince the father of "Zero Three" (Eduardo Bolsonaro's nickname) not to commit such a folly.

Surprisingly, three weeks ago, when the president of Chile, Sebastián Piñera (another staunch Americanophile), announced his country's entry into 5G technology, he made no objections to the Chinese. However, it turns out that Chile is not as decisive in the geopolitics of the South American continent as Brazil.

If Bolsonaro boycotts Huawei to curry favor with his boss Trump, it's very likely that all other South American governments led by far-right populist leaders will follow suit.

Therefore, Brasília's position is being awaited with some anxiety. The Brazilian vice-president, Colonel Hamilton Mourão, has been making statements indicating that Brazilian sovereignty will be respected and that national interests will prevail in this matter.

It is recommended to give it time! Mourão was never all that great.