Kashmir, Korea, Venezuela, Iran: hot, cold, and hybrid war

Translated by Sylvie Giraud

Spinning and turning in an ever-increasing spiral, the geopolitics of the young 21st century resembles a psychedelic mandala conceived by Yama, the Lord of Death.

That same phrase, if it had been uttered a short time ago, would have provoked transcontinental cries of derision.

In contrast to Iran's nuclear-free leadership, President Kim, who possesses a small nuclear arsenal, is considered an interlocutor by the superpower, a contradiction all the more blatant given that this same superpower abandoned a functional multilateral nuclear agreement approved by the UN.

Simultaneously, Asia's hottest border is not, surprisingly, the Demilitarized Zone between the Koreas, but, once again, the Line of Control between the nuclear powers of India and Pakistan in Kashmir.

In an escalating tension, although Islamabad and Delhi could, in theory, point their nuclear missiles at each other, North Korea will not point a single nuclear-tipped missile at Guam, and Tehran will not direct its missiles at anything, since it does not possess any.

Like in a tasteless animated comedy, regime change in Pyongyang leaves the stage, while regime change in Iran remains, and regime change in Venezuela takes center stage. Iran may still be placed in the Axis of Evil, but the new motto is the troika of tyranny (Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua), as the Caracas government beeps in the nose of the Wily Coyote of the Superpower.

A series of dubious neocons And obscure American "foundations" keep the flame of regime change alive in Iran, going so far as to fabricate a Tehran-Al-Qaeda axis, while a surreptitious scenario unfolds in Venezuela. A startling... briefing The Foreign Ministry in Moscow last Friday revealed that “US special forces and technology units will be deployed closer to Venezuela’s borders. We have information that the US and its NATO partners are organizing a massive arms delivery from an Eastern European country to the opposition in Venezuela.”

The facts are undeniable. After almost two decades, NATO was miserably defeated in Afghanistan. The NATO-Gulf Cooperation Council proxy war in Syria failed. The winners are Damascus, Tehran, and Moscow. The conflict in Donbass is frozen. So, the solution was a return to a remix of the Monroe Doctrine, even though the humanitarian maneuver – reminiscent of the "humanitarian imperialism" that led to the destruction of Libya – seems to have failed, for now.

Brazilian Vice President General Hamilton Mourão introduced a dose of sanity to the debate by speaking out against the "all options are on the table" regime change approach of his own president, Jair Bolsonaro. Mourão frequently emphasizes that "The Venezuelan issue should be decided by the Venezuelans.adding that the US threats sound “more rhetoric than action.because a military attack would bepointless".

Look at this K.

What's in a name? If Pakistan in Urdu truly means "land of the pureThe key lies in the acronym, where K stands for Kashmir – alongside P for Punjab, A for Afghanistan (actually, the Pashtun tribal areas), S for Sindh, and T for the “tan” in Balochistan. OK is a matter of national identity.

Kashmir is a crucial geostrategic prize. Assuming India continues to possess it entirely, this would represent a direct bridge to Central Asia and a border with Afghanistan, while depriving Pakistan of a border with China, largely negating the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), one of the key projects of the... Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

If Pakistan possessed it entirely, it would resolve the country's concerns about water security. The river Indus It begins in the Himalayas, in Tibet, and passes through Indian-controlled Kashmir before entering Pakistan and making its way all the way to the Arabian Sea. Indus And its tributaries supply water to two-thirds of Pakistan. New Delhi has just threatened to militarize the flow of water to Pakistan.

It is difficult to foresee an end to the endless skirmishes or even partial conflagrations between the jihadists – protected by Islamabad at different levels – and the Indian army that constantly agitate Kashmir. The Islamist Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) aspires to the complete annexation of Kashmir to a Pakistan governed by Sharia law.

JeM's obsession with Kashmir is also shared by his de facto allies Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). Both are supported – with varying degrees of nuance – by Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI. Above all, both are heavily financially supported by the Saudi Royal Family, in practice. Wahhabi, and by the United Arab Emirates.

There is no solution for Kashmir that does not involve cutting off at the root Saudi proselytism, funding, and armament – ​​a toxic cocktail that fueled Pakistan's infamous Kalashnikov culture. And there will be no solution as long as the Saudi Royal Family's ability to have Islamabad's nuclear weapons "made to order" remains the biggest public secret in South Asia.

Russia and China as voices of reason.

If this were a sensible field, separate from Yama, India and Pakistan would engage in dialogue, as Prime Minister Imran Khan has just offered through the platform of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, of which both are members, with Russia and China acting as mediators.

This brings us to what happened in Yueqing, China, on Wednesday, completely under the Western radar; a ministerial-level meeting. The "RIC" meeting within BRICS brought together Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj.

Lavrov may have denounced “absolutely blatant attempts” of being “to artificially create a pretext for military intervention."in Venezuela. But at the heart of the international geostrategic agenda was what Russia, China, and India discussed regarding Kashmir—attempting to defuse a still-explosive situation—which could eventually have a direct impact on both Islamabad and New Delhi."

The coordinated positions of China and Russia were absolutely fundamental in facilitating dialogue between North Korea and the Trump administration. However, it is still a long way from fulfilling South Korean President Moon's dream: Trump officially declaring the end of the 1950-1953 Korean War through a peace treaty that replaces the current armistice with security guarantees. After all, this is the number one condition for North Korea to begin contemplating denuclearization.

China and Russia, in theory, also have what it takes to lead India and Pakistan down the path of reason – and they possess the necessary influence to equally pressure the militaristic Wahhabism of Saudi Arabia.

Still, from Washington's point of view, China and Russia are "ameaças"— opinion held by both National Security Strategy as well as officials like Air Force General Terrence O'Shaughnessy, commander of Northcom, who just told the Senate committee that the “Russia's intention to keep the US at riskThis represents an urgent threat.

Some are more equal than others.

China, Russia, and Iran are essential nodes in Eurasian integration, linking key vectors of... New Silk Roads, through Iran's trade agreement with Eurasian Economic Union and expansion of North-South International Transport Corridor (INSTC). Considering the interests at stake, Lavrov and Yi could not help but be shocked by the resignation of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif from his post, via Instagram.

Sources in Tehran claim that the main reason for Zarif's resignation was that he was not informed – and ultimately did not attend – a high-level meeting in Tehran on Monday regarding Bashar al-Assad's Syria, which was to be attended by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, and President Hassan Rouhani, and where they discussed strictly Syrian military matters, not diplomacy. Zarif may not have been present in the room, but his deputy, Abbas Araghchi, was.

In the end, Rouhani rejected Zarif's resignation, stressing that it was against Iran's national interests. Essentially, Soleimani said that Zarif had Khamenei's full support. While several factions of Iranian radicals may be irritated with Zarif and Rouhani, characterizing them as fools who fell into an American trap, the last thing Tehran needs right now – under pressure from hybrid warfare – is internal division. Meanwhile, support from Russia and China remains the same.

Washington may deploy variations of Hybrid Warfare, but most of the reflexes remain those of the Cold War, without distinction. The mechanism remains the same. A fortune of US taxpayer money is poured into the military-industrial complex, with defense companies and large corporations paying fabulous campaign contributions to the political class. This is why someone like Tulsi Gabbard, who is against war—hot, cold, and hybrid—and opposed to the strategy of regime changesHe will be banished to the Kingdom of the Future by the arms manufacturer lobby, and prevented from running for president.

The Global South has learned that, as it spins and turns in the ever-increasing spiral, some countries are in fact more equal than others. Even if some may be relentlessly criticized as enablers of terrorism (Pakistan), and nuclear powers must be appeased (DPRK) and seduced (India as a pillar of the strategy).Indo-Pacific"). President Kim is now a "great leader"that can give your nation a"tremendous future".

Non-nuclear powers, especially those rich in natural resources and implementing strategies that allow them to circumvent the US dollar, such as Iran and Venezuela, face the fate of becoming targets of regime change, slowly and painfully devoured by Yama, the Lord of Death.