Queiroz case strains Bolsonaro's base.

By Helena Chagas, for Journalists for Democracy

It's too early to say that the penny has dropped, but Jair Bolsonaro's behavior over the weekend reinforces the perception that the president has become convinced he is surrounded. For the first time in months, Bolsonaro neither attended anti-democratic demonstrations nor stopped at the gates of the Alvorada Palace to speak to and be flattered by supporters. Everything indicates that the resurgence, with full force, of the Queiroz case is changing the landscape within Bolsonarism itself.

Unlike what happens in other confrontations, such as the clashes with the Supreme Federal Court (STF), when they almost always obtain massive support on social media, Bolsonaro saw a large part of his supporters silenced by the arrest of Fabrício Queiroz. Few dared, even outside of social media, to defend the president and his son Flávio when the former aide was found at the home of their lawyer, Frederick Wassef. 

It is clear, therefore, that if there is one issue that is eroding Bolsonaro's social and political base, it is Queiroz. And the president will have already realized that even the military, whose supposed support he constantly trumpets, are deeply uncomfortable with the arrest of the former aide and, above all, with the prospect of this unfolding into further revelations that affect the presidential family. Similarly, the newly allied Centrão has not yet shown its face in defense of the president. That is where the limit lies – it has finally been discovered. 

Already feeling cornered by the investigations at the Supreme Court, Jair Bolsonaro had begun, even before Queiroz's arrest, to send messages of peace to his adversaries. He fired Abraham Weintraub and sent a trio of palace ministers to visit the rapporteur Alexandre de Moraes. For interlocutors at the Supreme Court, however, the attitude, besides not inspiring confidence, will have come too late. It doesn't smell of a real change in behavior towards an understanding. It's more like a desperate attempt by someone who knows that only the defensive remains.