War fatigue

Finally, it seems we will reach a ceasefire in the great hell that Gaza has become.

International and US pressure on Netanyahu's far-right government appears to be having some effect. 

Even European countries, which previously unconditionally supported the massacre perpetrated by the Israeli far-right in Gaza, have now come to recognize the Palestinian state and demand an end to what the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court characterize as genocide.

However, the commendable effort for peace in Gaza should also extend to Ukraine. Europe, in particular, must abandon its belligerent stance and its Russophobic paranoia, and support a peace process that creates a geopolitical balance in Eurasia. 

Obviously, Russia has neither the intention nor the capacity to "invade" or "dominate" "European territories." It doesn't even have the capacity to wage a war of occupation in Ukraine.

Their objectives are far more modest and defensive: to control Russian-speaking areas, protect those populations, and ensure Ukraine's neutrality, a demand that has been ongoing for decades.

 Continuing this senseless war is imposing a useless sacrifice on the Ukrainians, in the name of a belligerent geostrategy conceived by American neoconservatives in the 90s.

The fact is that most Ukrainians now favor ending the war with Russia through negotiations, since support for fighting until victory has fallen drastically since the early days of the conflict. 

At the start of the conflict, according to the Gallup Institute, 73% of Ukrainians wanted the war to continue until Ukraine's "final victory." Only 22% wanted a quick peace negotiation.

Now, in a survey conducted about 2 months ago, the situation has completely reversed. Almost 70% of Ukrainians (69%) want peace as quickly as possible. Only 24% continue to support the war effort.

All aspects and factors of the Ukrainian state and society—the economy, public opinion, the armed forces themselves—exhibit clear and unmistakable signs of increasing exhaustion.

Military mobilization, for example, has stagnated. There are many understaffed brigades, and desertion within the ranks is a growing problem. Increasing the use of mercenaries, including Brazilians, does not solve the issue.

According to the Associated Press, "entire units are abandoning their posts, leaving defensive lines vulnerable and accelerating territorial losses." Since the beginning of the conflict, there have been more than one hundred thousand desertions.  

And there is great difficulty in replacing the large number of losses.

There is also intense concern in defense circles in Kyiv about a collapse or even disintegration of the Ukrainian armed forces, with drastic implications for the country's long-term security.

Any serious analyst has known for some time that Ukraine is not in a position to win this war.

This war needs to end soon. Europe, in particular, needs to stop encouraging Ukraine to persist in the conflict.

Unlike the conflict in Gaza, the conflict in Ukraine has the potential to become internationalized and, even worse, nuclear. It is therefore a war that represents a potential, yet concrete, danger to the entire world. 

The longer it lasts, the greater the likelihood of a spiral out of control with unpredictable consequences.

Recent provocations regarding alleged incursions into the airspace of other countries could lead to a "false flag" incident, which would intensify and expand a potentially global conflict.

The Ukrainians, whose economy is the poorest in Europe and which experienced a 35% drop in GDP in 2022, can no longer endure the war. Only Europe insists on a pointless sacrifice that hinders the development of a country with great growth potential. The prospect of an endless war of attrition, in which Ukraine would continue to "bleed" needlessly, would be a disaster for everyone.

Instead of investing in war, Europeans should invest in peace and in socially and environmentally sustainable development in Ukraine.

The Global South and Brazil hope this will be the outcome of a conflict that everyone is tired of.

As has already been said, the worst peace is preferable to the "best" war.