Will Bolsonaro survive the year of the pandemic and the global fight against racism?

For months, some have been announcing that the pandemic would be the fundamental phenomenon of the 21st century, just as the 1929 crisis was of the 20th century. Indeed, the pandemic has shaken the entire world, all power structures, and affects everyone's lives. The market itself is succumbing to its effects, rushing to ask the State, so demonized by it, for help so that everyone can defend themselves, through the SUS (Brazilian public healthcare system) and public research centers, against this terrible pandemic.

Even the powerful American hegemony in the world is suffering greatly, both domestically and internationally, unable to solve everything with money, as is its mentality. American society is shaken by the largest demonstrations in its history, outraged by yet another brutal murder of a black man at the hands of white police officers. 

Everything is going wrong for Trump. The American economy was doing well, unemployment was decreasing, there was a climate of relative prosperity, and the Democratic candidate seemed weak to face him in this political scenario. Suddenly, the pandemic arrived, and the US was unable to cope with it due to the weakness of the country's public health sector. The government poured all the money it had and didn't have into it, thinking that this would allow it to recover from the losses.

As if that weren't enough, the reactions to yet another crime against Black people, this time filmed in detail, sparked popular mobilizations across the country. Faced with these mobilizations, Trump, who is only thinking about the polls for the November presidential elections, reacted in the worst possible way, threatening to even call in the Armed Forces to repress them. Support for the demonstrations has reached 72%, while Biden has opened up a 10-point lead over him in the polls.

The pandemic is compounded by the spread of anti-racist demonstrations around the world, reaching Europe and also Brazil. This year is not only the year of the pandemic and all its effects. It also becomes the year of the global fight against racism. The demonstrations by organized fan groups, the protests in Curitiba and Manaus, erupt, mobilized by anti-fascism and anti-racism.

The Brazilian government is succumbing to the lack of a policy to combat the pandemic. The militarization of the Ministry of Health is a disaster, first and foremost for the Brazilian people, who are left abandoned in the face of the exponential increase in victims and deaths from the coronavirus. It is also a disaster for the Armed Forces, unprepared to assume a responsibility of this magnitude, but which now becomes responsible for the catastrophes that have befallen Brazil. The military is failing and demonstrating its incompetence in assuming governmental responsibilities, especially with an acute issue like health during a pandemic.

But it could also be a disaster for the Bolsonaro government. Already incapable of recovering the economy before the pandemic, it will find itself grappling with the biggest recession in Brazilian history, with record unemployment. This is all being exacerbated by the effects of the pandemic and the climate of political mobilizations, which have already restarted and are expected to see a moment of widespread popular response on Sunday, responses that have been contained until now by the quarantine.

Bolsonaro is trying to defend himself by relying on the support of business leaders, as long as he can maintain Paulo Guedes' neoliberal economic policies, which are being undermined by the pandemic and the recession. He relies on the military, who are playing a decisive role in the Ministry of Health. And he relies on the Centrão (center-right bloc), which is replacing Sérgio Moro, on whom he can count while he manages to circumvent the legal proceedings against him and his sons.

This year, marked by the pandemic, recession, and the fight against racism, will be a difficult obstacle for Bolsonaro. Does the right wing no longer want him? That's a question. Sectors of the right are mobilizing because he is an obstacle to economic recovery. What they want is to ensure that, if Bolsonaro's continuation becomes impossible, they can count on Mourão in his place or a succession defined by a conservative Chamber, preventing new elections from being held.

The truth is that the government crisis is only beginning. Once deepened by large popular mobilizations demanding Bolsonaro's removal, the crisis could lead to an open situation, either through the annulment of the ticket and the 2018 elections, or through accusations from the Supreme Federal Court, which could also lead to the end of the Bolsonaro government.