Bolsonaro is burning through his popularity reserves.

By Helena Chagas, for Divergent and the Journalists for Democracy - The first popularity polls of a leader, theoretically still in the honeymoon phase with voters, don't mean much. However, the CNT/MDA poll released this Tuesday already raises some warnings for Jair Bolsonaro, despite still registering a high degree of expectations regarding future government actions. The problem, however, is that the president's positive rating (sum of good and excellent), at 38,9%, is the lowest among all presidents elected at this point in their term.

The correct comparison to make is not with the meager approval ratings with which Bolsonaro's predecessor, Michel Temer, ended his government. It is, rather, with Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who in February 1995, shortly after his first election, had a 57% approval rating. Or with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who in January 2003 had 56,6%, or with Dilma Rousseff, who a few months after her first inauguration, in August 2011, had 49,1%.

Each of these former presidents had their own trajectory of (un)popularity. Lula was re-elected and left his second term with over 80% approval. Dilma was also re-elected but ended up being impeached. Fernando Henrique did the same, but left his second term with less than 25% positive approval.

Bolsonaro still has a long way to go, but his rapid fat-burning in the first 60 days is evident. It was a turbulent period, in which one of his sons was involved in the Queiroz Case investigations and the other picked a fight that resulted in the damaging dismissal of Gustavo Bebbiano.

The CNT/MDA survey itself shows that the role of sons 01, 02, and 03 in the government has not been well received by public opinion. For 73% of those interviewed, son Carlos Bolsonaro had influence in Bebianno's dismissal, although 54% considered this dismissal "fair." But 56,8% believe that the president's sons are interfering in their father's decisions, and 75,1% believe that this should not happen.

The need to limit children's interference is perhaps the main message from the CNT/MDA survey to Bolsonaro, since there is still a reasonable degree of confidence among Brazilians in the future and in the government: 57% believe that the current government will change their lives for the better. They think that security (53,3%) and employment (51%) will improve.

Bolsonaro's problem now is getting started to do that.