Bolsonaro is not Trump and will leave the Presidency without leading the far right.

Bolsonaro drew direct inspiration from Donald Trump in adopting his rhetoric, his style of governing, his relationships with other institutions and political opponents, and his denialism. It seemed like a path to victory.

The two have distinct origins and characteristics, but converged on similar positions and stances. They even coincided in the presidency of their respective countries, giving the impression that they would project a far-right movement on a global scale. But obstacles soon arose, beginning with Donald Trump.

By failing to win reelection, Trump sent a message to Bolsonaro. It was one thing to be a free-shooting candidate, criticizing others. It was quite another to be in government, having to answer for what he did and what he didn't do. His rhetoric was losing its force.

Bolsonaro is already feeling this change. His decline stems precisely from his performance in government. Even with the tactic of trying to outsource responsibilities – to the Judiciary, to governors, among others – his denialist discourse has lost its effect, as has his inability to make the economy work, with the resulting social problems. 

Bolsonaro remains a denier, while Trump realized the damage he suffered and became in favor of vaccination. He became in favor, preparing for the new presidential campaign.

But the main differences arise between the two after they leave office. Trump remains a central political figure in American life, not only because he has adapted his discourse, but also because he has many years of television experience, relying on a channel with a large audience. 

Furthermore, Trump has the support of the Republican Party, which overwhelmingly backs him. To the point that he recently stated that the invasion of the Capitol was politically legitimate. It's a national party, one of the major parties. A party with a large number of governors and a strong parliamentary presence. It is expected to win the next parliamentary elections, gaining a majority in both the Senate and the House.

Trump is currently the favorite to win the next presidential election. For all these reasons, he has remained the leading opposition figure.

Bolsonaro's situation is different from Trump's. If he is elected, like his American counterpart who was defeated in his reelection bid, he will face very different circumstances. 

Bolsonaro lacks a political discourse, an analysis of the country. His discourse is extremely poor, it adds nothing, and it is always directed at a minority audience, extremely linked to him.

He is unlikely to perform well in the election campaign, and even less so if there are debates during the campaign. His record-high rejection rate is a fundamental obstacle to his political future.

He will leave the government practically without a political party. His support will diminish even further. The lawsuits against him and his sons will directly affect him.

Even if Trump returns to the presidency of the United States, he will not have Bolsonaro as a partner, who is unlikely to be re-elected and who, after his term, will likely lose even more political power. Bolsonarism, as a far-right movement, will probably survive. But without a major leader.