Bolsonaro and his variants

We entered 2022 with several electoral polls duly registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), which, in addition to guaranteeing Lula's isolated lead, also show him with double the votes of the second-placed candidate, who, not coincidentally, is the current president of the republic. The most interesting aspect of these latest polls, however, is the substantial growth in support among evangelical voters and, depending on the position he adopts in his electoral strategy, he has the possibility of winning in the first round. 

While Lula has been consolidating his leadership in the progressive field, on the other side, the conservative wave remains strong. It would be practically impossible for any other candidate in any other country in the world to survive the chaos to which this government is subjected. There are more than 100 impeachment requests, several corruption scandals, no planning for economic growth, and a completely denialist management of the pandemic. Even with all this negative assessment of the government and the president, there is a solid base of followers – increasingly angry and noisy – that keeps him in the game, averaging 30% popularity.

To defeat Bolsonaro, it is crucial to have the ability to build a broad front with alliances that can attract important electoral colleges and, moreover, provoke cracks within the social and political base that sustains him. In a way, the government itself has already begun to crumble, since it was formed by a coalition of social forces that no longer has the unity it had in 2018 and 2019. 

The Lava Jato wing broke with the government when Sérgio Moro left the Ministry of Justice, and the most radical core was abandoned due to the investigation into anti-democratic acts. Meanwhile, agribusiness faces a dilemma: despite applauding the president's speeches defending weapons and opposing agrarian reform, quilombola territories, and indigenous rights, the sector's full support is no longer a reality due to the government's radicalization of foreign policy, which directly affects its market. Furthermore, the Centrão's adherence to the government's hard core of support removes any semblance of morality that this political bloc was still trying to cultivate.

Even with these cracks, the PT and Lula know that the 2022 election is crucial to the country's history and that the most radical sectors of the far right will not hand over the presidential sash so easily. That is precisely why the Workers' Party has been building an electoral strategy that projects a resounding victory for Lula.

To attract centrist sectors, Lula has been seeking dialogue with various political leaders; and to consolidate a strong platform in São Paulo, he attracted Geraldo Alckmin to the PSB and will probably choose him as his vice-presidential candidate. Some political analysts believe that this alliance does not repel Lula's electorate and, on the contrary, makes him grow substantially in the state of São Paulo. 

But it's no secret that the 2016 coup aimed to implement neoliberal policies. It's so true that in the period leading up to the impeachment, the PMDB presented an economic proposal for Brazil, called "Bridge to the Future," which already addressed the neoliberal reforms that Temer would later implement and which, shortly afterward, would be deepened by the Bolsonaro government. The big question in the 2022 elections will be the continuation or not of this economic policy. In this sense, the electoral debate involves not only the politics of alliances, but also the political program that Lula and the PT will present to society. 

But the biggest challenge of 2022 is not just defeating Bolsonaro at the polls, but also defeating Bolsonarism and the growth of the far right across the country. It's necessary to consider the variants that Bolsonarism has amplified throughout Brazil, such as the militias—which dominate more than 60 percent of the city of Rio de Janeiro and are spreading throughout the country—and the more radical and violent organizations linked to neo-Nazi ideas, which, according to a report shown on Fantástico on January 16th, have grown by more than 300% nationwide. 

It is precisely because we understand that there is something bigger than Bolsonaro that the electoral victory should not belong solely to Lula, but to all democratic sectors. The greatest lesson since June 2013 is the existence of political struggle outside parliamentary chambers and palaces. This struggle is and will be in the streets; consequently, the political program must also be there. It must be widely debated and understood by the population, as this will guarantee the development of the political line and, consequently, the social base to support the new government against the attacks of the far right.

Lula gave an indication of the political program he will adopt when he spoke about repealing the labor reform, following the example of Spain. In several moments and in various speeches, the theme of national sovereignty is also prominent, and logically, this demonstrates that Lula is not only in opposition to the Bolsonaro government, but mainly in opposition to this sell-out policy. But the most interesting economic policy formula, it must be said, is to place as the central idea of ​​the future government the concept that the poor should be incorporated into the budget, as Lula often emphasizes in his speeches. 

Having these issues as cornerstones of a future government leads us to believe that we will see a resumption of public investment in the economy, coupled with policies for income distribution and access to credit. All this without taking away rights; on the contrary, by repealing the reforms that remove rights.

Research indicates hope for the Brazilian democratic field, and even with all the risks that the far right may pose, with examples ranging from the possibility of destabilization—creating waves of violence across the country—to the example of what happened in the United States Capitol, fear does not exist as a feeling among those who dream of social justice. History is long, and a four-year period of far-right growth does not summarize the history of the country and the desires of the Brazilian people. Civilization will overcome barbarism, and in 2022 Brazil will rediscover hope.